Will Sensex, Nifty rally or tank on Budget 2025 day? Check key levels here

On the last 3 Budget days, the Nifty ended marginally in red; the NSE benchmark has ended lower on 5 out of previous 7 occasions when finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her record 8th consecutive Union Budget in the Parliament on Saturday, February 01, 2025. Despite, being a Saturday, equity and commodity markets will be open for trading on account of the Union Budget.  On the last three Budget days, the market action was subdued, with Nifty closing with marginal losses up to 0.3 per cent. Overall, the Nifty has delivered a negative return on 5 off the 7 Budget Days, presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman.  Under her tenure, Nifty registered its biggest Budget Day gain on February 01, 2021 - up 4.7 per cent or 646 points - as the index climbed to 14,281. On the flip side, the biggest fall was witnessed on February 01, 2020, when the Nifty dropped 2.5 per cent or 300 points to settle at 11,811.  Thus historical trend shows a diverse movement by the NSE Nifty 50 on the Budget Day; with a slight bias towards negative returns. 

 

 

  That apart, the Nifty has also delivered a negative return on 4 out of 7 occasions on a one-month time-frame post the Union Budget. The biggest loss came in the year 2019, as the Nifty shed 8 per cent in a month. The years 2022 and 2020 also saw a significant loss of 5.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively. Last year, post the February Budget, the Nifty delivered a 3 per cent return.  So far today, the NSE Nifty 50 index has displayed a firm uptrend, and quoted 0.7 per cent higher at 23,400 levels. The index has recovered by nearly 3 per cent from its recent low around 22,800 levels.    Against this background, how should you trade the Nifty 50 index on the Budget Day and the coming period? Can the index see a bigger move on Budget day or will it be subdued?  In general, the market action on a non-regular trading day tends to be erratic at times, owing to lesser participation and mis-match in demand/ supply volumes. This also times result in see wilder swings.  As such, here's a technical outlook on the Nifty 50 index.  Nifty  Current Level: 23,400  Upside Potential: 3.6%  Downside Risk: 8.1%  Support: 22,800; 22,270  Resistance: 23,600; 23,800; 24,000  The Nifty 50 index has gained nearly 3 per cent from its recent low of 22,787. In Friday's trade the index has crossed the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the first time since the start of the calendar year 2025. Given the oversold condition, further pullback from present levels cannot be ruled out.  As such, the Nifty could extend the rise towards 24,250 levels; with interim resistance seen at 23,600, 23,800 and 24,000 levels. For now, the 23,600 level is likely to act as a trend decider on the Nifty.    Going ahead, technically the Nifty looks weak on the charts owing to the recent 'Death Cross' pattern witnessed on the daily scale. A 'Death Cross' pattern means, the 50-DMA of the Nifty is now quoting below the 200-DMA. The 50-DMA stands at 23,816, while the 200-DMA is at 24,000. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Technically a 'Death Cross' pattern implies change in trend from bullish to bearish. Hence, going ahead, the Nifty could fall back to lower levels after an interim recovery. Chart show that the Nifty seems on course to test the long-term support at 22,270 and 21,500 levels. The recent lows around 22,800 can act as intermediate support for the Nifty.  Meanwhile, the pivot point for BSE Sensex stands at 78,150. The BSE benchmark index needs to cross and sustain above the same for further gains. As such, the Sensex can jump 79,200 - 80,000 levels. On the flip side, the key support stands at 76,200; below which the index can slide to 75,200 - 74,370 levels.