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The case for RBI rate cuts: Space, need, and timing considerations

The inflation backdrop provides ample room. Core inflation has edged up, but mainly driven by gold prices

Reserve Bank of India, RBI
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The government has anno­unced personal income tax cuts, GST cuts and frontloaded capex, but it also intends to maintain the fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent of GDP, which means that the net fiscal impulse is not as large.

Sonal Varma
As the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meets, we believe there is a case for resuming rate cuts, based on space, need, and timing considerations. 
Space for easing 
The inflation backdrop provides ample room. Core inflation has edged up, but mainly driven by gold prices. Underlying inflation measures such as the trimmed mean and super core are closer to 3 per cent. Even the year-ahead inflation projections showing an uptick above 4 per cent, largely reflect an unfavourable base rath­er than emerging price pre­ssures. The upcoming GST rati­onalisation should
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