Best of BS Opinion: Trade wars, India's growth, and poll forecast failures

Here are the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for today

Some changes happen suddenly — a volcanic eruption, a political landslide, a market crash. Others are slow, imperceptible, until one day, the map looks different. Like tectonic plates drifting apart, the world is shifting in ways that may not cause immediate tremors but will, inevitably, redraw the boundaries of economies, alliances, and influence. Let’s dive in. 

Take Trump’s latest tariff war cry. In his first address to Congress since securing a second term, he doubled down on economic nationalism, slapping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China while taking aim at India’s auto tariffs. The global trading landscape, once a vast and interconnected supercontinent, is fracturing. Retaliatory measures are brewing, Yale’s Budget Lab warns of price spikes, and geopolitical trust —already on shaky ground — is eroding. Read our first editorial for more. 

 

Meanwhile, India eyes a different kind of movement — one towards long-term economic transformation. A new World Bank report charts a path to high-income status by 2047, but the journey demands seismic shifts: a near-doubling of investment rates, aggressive financial reforms, and a rethink of trade policies. The challenge? The global economic climate is cooling, and India’s own trade openness is declining. Here’s our second editorial for more. 

Amid these upheavals, Ajay Chhibber explores what he calls “The Great Dismantling” under Trump — a deliberate undoing of global institutions and trade agreements, forcing nations to recalibrate their strategies. NATO is weakening, trade wars are intensifying, and India is caught in a complex dance with the US, negotiating deals while guarding against new frictions. Just like shifting plates, the aftershocks will be felt far beyond Washington. 

And then there’s the unpredictability of democratic systems themselves. Ashok Kumar Lahiri examines the ever-widening chasm between election forecasts and reality. Indian psephology has struggled to get its predictions right — just like its Western counterparts — leaving us to question whether pollsters are mapping political movements with outdated tools. Can better methodology bridge the gap, or will political forecasting remain as uncertain as an impending earthquake? 

But not all shifts are destructive. As Dammu Ravi reviews India’s Bilateral Investment Treaties 2.0 by James Nedumpara, he highlights the need for India to refine its investor frameworks — balancing national interests with global credibility. Investment treaties, like tectonic plates, need careful negotiation; too rigid, and they crack under pressure, too loose, and they slip away.  

Stay tuned, and remember, the world is moving, shifting, reshaping. The question is: when the dust settles, where will we stand?