Behind Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's switch: Caste play, Modi's outreach

Bihar CM, who returned to NDA fold, feared significant losses in Lok Sabha polls had he stayed with INDIA bloc

Frustration with the conduct of allies in the Opposition bloc and a honed instinct for political survival had Janata Dal (United) President Nitish Kumar exit Bihar's “grand alliance” government on Sunday morning. The 72-year-old socialist leader returned to head a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government 18 months after severing his ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

In the evening, Kumar was sworn in as Bihar’s chief minister for a record ninth term. BJP leaders Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha were sworn in as deputy chief ministers, along with half a dozen other ministers. This new government balanced the state’s caste equations.

 

Kumar’s exit from the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) government, which included the JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and the Left parties, jolted the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) Opposition bloc. This was a state where the bloc had hoped to dent the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Kumar, asserting that the newly sworn National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in the state would put in its utmost efforts for the state's development.

According to a close associate of Kumar’s, a combination of factors led to Kumar’s exit from the INDIA bloc. These included an outreach that Modi personally oversaw, the Congress leadership’s inability to accord him the respect he expected for his role in shaping the Opposition alliance, and the party’s December losses in the Assembly polls in the Hindi heartland states. “The Congress leadership’s decision to heed Lalu Prasad’s advice on Bihar, ignoring Kumar’s contribution to forming the grand alliance government and shaping the INDIA bloc, irked Kumar the most,” the associate, who has been friends with Kumar for over five decades, told Business Standard.

Manisha Priyam, a professor at the New Delhi-based National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, said: "A strong Lalu Prasad working in tandem with the Congress was a matter of discomfort for Kumar.” She added that it helped the BJP’s outreach because several of Kumar’s advisers, including Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Harivansh and others, have a good equation with the BJP leadership. “They convinced Kumar that politically he was better off with the BJP than the Lalu Prasad-led RJD,” Priyam said.

Kumar’s close associate argued that the JD (U) leader was unsure of the RJD’s continued support. “At the core of Kumar's decision was a cold political calculation. Kumar assessed that the RJD’s Yadav-led dominant Other Backward Class (OBC) support base was unlikely to vote for the JD(U) candidates in the Lok Sabha polls,” the associate said, adding that the Congress’ losses in the Hindi heartland and Modi’s rising graph further convinced him. The JD(U) won 16 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, which it contested in alliance with the BJP. Kumar was unsure of winning even half a dozen if he stayed with the RJD and the Congress.

Priyam said that Kumar, unlike Prasad, is not purely a caste leader, suggesting that his alliance with the BJP is more seamless. “Kumar has pursued a ‘combination politics’ of caste and class in the mould of former Bihar CM Karpoori Thakur,” she said. Thakur believed that political leadership should be in the hands of the backwards. Unlike Prasad, Thakur was anti-feudal, not anti-upper castes, backing reservations for the poor among forward castes. “While Prasad is perceived to be anti-forward castes, Kumar understood this ‘Karpoori formula’ better and has taken forward castes along while cultivating a solid support base among the extremely backward castes,” she said, adding that Bihar is also a rare state in India with a strong sentiment of anti-Congressism.

The challenge for Kumar could be the BJP’s efforts at giving representation to Kushwahas, Koeris, and even Kurmis, including the new Bihar deputy CM Samrat Choudhary. A JD(U) leader conceded that an aggressive BJP in the aftermath of the pran pratishtha at Ayodhya could turn away their party’s minority support in Bihar. “Yes, the Congress and Lalu Prasad are in a better position to attract Muslim voters, but Kumar has built personal rapport with the Muslim leadership of the state. We would need to wait and watch how this turns out,” Priyam said.

According to the RJD leadership, the BJP was desperate to ensure the downfall of the grand alliance government because it was the only political entity in the country that posed an ideological challenge. It conducted the caste census, ensured large-scale recruitment in government jobs, and ensured good law and order. After Kumar’s volte-face, the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav said the JDU would be “finished in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls”. “Nitish ji is a respectable leader, but he seemed to have a problem with me receiving credit for the many achievements of our government,” he said.

Insiders said the Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur, announced on January 23, on the eve of the leader's birth anniversary, was part of the plan to ease Kumar’s entry into the NDA and reach out to EBCs. “The thousands that turned up for the public meeting Kumar addressed on January 24, the birth anniversary of Karpoori Thakur, should convince people that he holds sway among the EBCs,” a JD (U) leader said, adding that to call Kumar alone a “paltu Ram” would be to ignore the BJP leadership’s role, which had declared their doors were closed for Kumar. As for the future, JD(U) leaders do not rule out the BJP subsuming their party, as it has succeeded with regional parties elsewhere, especially since Kumar does not have a successor, but at the current juncture, political survival was uppermost.