How West Asia conflict is shaping upcoming state election narratives

From LPG shortages to NRI voter concerns, the West Asia conflict is reshaping campaign strategies and narratives in key state elections

A touch of austerity in campaigning, anxieties around non-resident Indian (NRI) voters, and a defining issue on the ground — the ongoing war between United States-Israel and Iran and a resultant cooking gas shortage are shaping the narrative of political parties in the upcoming Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. 

Several parties, like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), are focusing on austerity measures, even pushing workers to prioritise the use of electric vehicles (EVs) and firewood cooking. Additionally, leaders like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin are scoring political points by calling the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) crisis a ‘failed foreign policy’ and the Centre’s ‘queue economy’. 

S Jayasooryan, BJP Kisan Morcha’s national vice-president, told Business Standard that the party’s opponents are spreading a false narrative that Kerala is facing a huge LPG shortage. However, the BJP has adopted austerity measures across poll-bound states. 

Jayasooryan, who is currently spearheading the party’s campaign in Kottayam district’s Pala constituency, said: “We normally use a lot of LPG during elections, depending on hotel food. What we are doing now is shifting the food for the entire team to houses, so that firewood and electric means can be used. We have reduced the number of cars and increased fuel-efficient bikes, and have also asked our team members to use a maximum number of EVs too”. 

However, it’s not just one party that is adopting austerity. In nearby Puthuppally, Congress candidate Chandy Oommen, son of late CM Oommen Chandy, has taken it a step further: He is using a hybrid cycle and avoiding a convoy of vehicles while campaigning. 

Some critics also allege that these measures are a result of strict expenditure caps by the Election Commission (EC), which has set prices of non-vegetarian meals at ₹350 and of vegetarian ones at ₹110. Additionally, there is a restriction on campaign logistics. 

The LPG crisis is playing out as a subplot in West Bengal too, amid the din surrounding the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and name deletions. 

On March 16, a day after the poll schedule was announced, Mamata led a protest march from Kolkata’s College Square to Dorina Crossing, replete with cutouts and posters of LPG cylinders to reinforce the Narendra Modi-led central government’s alleged failure to ensure adequate supply. 

A political analyst noted that it was hardly surprising that the LPG crisis had become part of poll strategy, with the shortage putting pressure on urban middle-class households as well as roadside vendors. Even in Kolkata’s business circles, there is a buzz around the crisis. Mamata has been returning to the issue now and then, keeping the pot simmering as Bengal heads to polls on April 23 and 29. 

Accusing the Centre of pushing people toward “primitive” ways of cooking and transport, Banerjee pointed out during a campaign in Paschim Bardhaman on March 26 that a domestic cylinder used to cost ₹400 before Modi came to power, and now costs around ₹1,100. 

At a rally on March 27, Abhishek Banerjee, Trinamool Congress (TMC) national general secretary, challenged Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to declare that the price of LPG, petrol and diesel will not be raised after the elections. The party has also been accusing the Centre of ushering in a ‘queue economy’ — from demonetisation in 2016 to the oxygen crisis during the pandemic, to the SIR and LPG shortage in 2026. “Welcome to the Queue Economy. 2016 to 2026: A decade of standing in line in @narendramodi’s New India,” the party wrote on its official X handle. 

The Left Front has been protesting against the issue as well — earlier this month, a march had been organised over the LPG shortage and the US-Israel aggression in Iran. 

Coming to Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies also organised protests across the state, accusing the Centre of failing to ensure uninterrupted supply. 

“Flawed decisions by the BJP government, which has become a ‘failure model’ even in foreign policy, have resulted in a severe LPG cylinder shortage. The lack of foresight and precautionary measures has left people suffering,” Stalin had said. 

The problem has a further layer in South India, with migrant labourers going back to their home states in North and East India.

  In Assam, the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) President Gaurav Gogoi has taken up the LPG shortage and also the government’s inability to stabilise the prices of essential commodities as key election issues. The party has conducted multiple protests across the state, calling it an “unjustified economic burden” on households.

 

Concerns over NRI voters 

The concerns arising from the Iran war are not limited to LPG and energy availability: They extend to a large section of NRI voters and party workers who visit their home states during elections. Mansoor Palloor, convenor of the Indian Overseas Congress in West Asia, told Business Standard that a majority of NRI voters will be unable to exercise their franchise this time. 

Palloor, a resident of Mahe in Puducherry, said that a ticket from Saudi Arabia’s Dammam to Kerala’s Kannur normally costs him around ₹24,000 — currently, its price is closer to ₹1 lakh. “Ideally, around 200,000-300,000 people used to come during polls from West Asia to Kerala. That is not happening this time, and will have implications on constituencies where the battle is close,” he said. In his constituency, Mahe, the margin of victory in the last election was a few hundred votes. 

From the cooking gas crisis-driven austerity to the higher flight rates, the West Asia war is rewriting the poll books in India, and the full extent of this will be seen on May 3, the day of results.