Is Patnaik shedding 'equidistance' doctrine? BJD-Cong tie-up sparks buzz

Naveen Patnaik's decision to back a joint candidate with the Congress signals a potential shift in Odisha politics as regional and national parties reposition after the 2024 elections

On March 5, the 110th birth anniversary of former chief minister late Biju Patnaik, Odisha witnessed an unusual political tableau that few would have imagined until recently.

 

Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik appeared alongside Odisha Congress president Bhakta Charan Das, signalling a potential political alignment to checkmate the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the March 16 Rajya Sabha elections.

 

While the BJD fielded corporate honcho-turned-politician Santrupt Misra as its official nominee, Patnaik declared urologist and former vice-chancellor of Odisha University of Health Sciences, Datteswar Hota, as the “common candidate” backed by the Congress.

 

This is the first time that Patnaik, who has long claimed to maintain “equidistance” from both the Congress and the BJP, has openly sought support from his party’s traditional rival for a Rajya Sabha seat for which no single party has the numbers to secure victory on its own.

 

Odisha has 10 members in the Rajya Sabha -- seven from the BJD and three from the BJP, including Union minister for railways, information & broadcasting, and electronics & information technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw, who was elected with the support of the regional party.

 

The election is necessitated as the tenure of BJD members Niranjan Bishi and Munna Khan, along with BJP’s Sujeet Kumar and Mamata Mohanta, expires on April 2.

 

For the BJP, its Odisha unit president Manmohan Samal and sitting Rajya Sabha member Sujeet Kumar have filed their nomination papers. The party is backing former Union minister and businessman Dilip Ray as an independent candidate.

 

Departure from a carefully maintained political line 

For nearly a quarter century, the idea of the BJD and the Congress standing together behind a single candidate would have been dismissed as political fantasy.

 

The BJD’s founding identity -- carefully crafted by Patnaik after the party’s formation in 1997 -- was rooted in a clear rejection of the Congress and its long political dominance in the state. The grand old party was the principal opponent against which the BJD defined its politics and purpose.

 

Patnaik stood at the centre of Odisha’s political landscape with unmatched authority for almost 24 years. He led successive governments from 2000 until 2024 and transformed the BJD into one of the country’s most powerful regional parties.

 

Even when the BJD occasionally supported the BJP-led government at the Centre, Patnaik maintained that the party’s decisions were driven solely by Odisha’s interests rather than political alignment.

 

The 2024 elections, however, dramatically altered that balance. The BJD’s defeat not only ended its long spell in power but also significantly reduced its strength in the Assembly.

 

Since severing ties with the BJP ahead of the 2009 general elections following the 2008 Kandhamal riots, Patnaik had consistently projected the BJD as an independent regional and secular force, distinct from the ideological and political agendas of both national parties. That long-standing political template now appears to be shifting, quietly but unmistakably.

 

Amid evolving political calculations, analysts believe it is also a strategic signal from the BJD and the Congress to remain relevant in the post-2024 landscape.

 

“Until 2024, Patnaik had both the authority and the numbers to maintain equidistance. Now, the BJD as a political force is declining in the absence of a concrete party structure. With the BJP emerging as the dominant force, the BJD has to depend on support from other parties to stay relevant,” said Gyana Ranjan Swain, head of the School of Political Science at GM University, Sambalpur.

 

Why is Patnaik reaching out to Congress? 

Reaching out to the Congress improves the BJD’s chances of securing another Rajya Sabha seat despite its reduced numbers while also preventing the BJP from expanding its presence in the Upper House. It also reflects a broader ambition — to consolidate non-BJP political forces in the state.

 

According to the current arithmetic in the 147-member Odisha Assembly, the ruling BJP is certain to win two seats while the BJD is assured of one. Neither party, however, has the 30 first-preference votes required to secure the fourth seat on its own.

 

The BJP has 79 MLAs and the support of three Independents, taking its tally to 82. However, it requires eight more votes to ensure the election of three members to the Rajya Sabha.

 

The Opposition BJD has 48 MLAs following the suspension of two members in February. After ensuring the victory of its official nominee, the party will have 18 first-preference votes left and will require 12 more to secure another seat.

 

The Congress has 14 MLAs and the CPI(M) has one. Numerically, Hota’s victory appears likely only if both the BJD and the Congress maintain internal unity.

 

But beyond the arithmetic lies a broader strategic consideration. Rahul Verma, fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research, sees the development as part of Patnaik’s attempt to reposition the BJD in a new political environment after its 2024 defeat.

 

“For years the BJD was the central pole of Odisha politics. After the 2024 election, that position has shifted to the BJP. In such a situation, a tactical understanding with the Congress may become necessary, especially when the outcome depends purely on numbers,” he told Business Standard.

 

“This may just be the beginning. If the two parties continue to coordinate, then four or five years down the line, we may see a new coalition in the state.”

 

For the Congress, supporting the BJD-backed candidate is also a strategic opportunity.  State Congress president Das said the decision to support a common candidate was pragmatic rather than symbolic.

 

“After a long time, a significant political decision has been taken among the non-BJP parties for the fourth seat… It marks the beginning of a new phase in Opposition politics in Odisha,” Das said, hinting that similar possibilities could be explored in the future.

 

Patnaik, however, neither confirmed nor dismissed the possibility of a broader alliance between the BJD and the Congress. Responding cautiously, he said: “Time always tells future history.”

 

When reminded of his earlier remark that “every bone of mine is secular,” the BJD president simply replied: “I repeat that.”

 

BJP’s calculated strategy 

Since the BJP does not have enough numbers in the Assembly to guarantee victory for a third official candidate, it has avoided the risk of direct electoral defeat by backing Ray as an independent. If Ray wins, the BJP can claim it helped secure the victory; if he loses, the party can argue that it never formally contested the seat.

 

Ray, a close aide of Biju Patnaik, unsuccessfully contested the 2024 Assembly elections on a BJP ticket but remains confident about his prospects. Recalling his 2002 political manoeuvre -- when he challenged Naveen Patnaik’s leadership and successfully entered the Rajya Sabha as an independent candidate with cross-party support -- Ray believes a similar strategy could work again.

 

“Then, I managed to get the support of 30 members. This time, I need only eight. I will approach all parties, and it is achievable,” he said.

 

Whether Hota wins or Ray manages to secure support from dissidents within the BJD and Congress ranks, one thing is clear: Odisha’s politics is entering a new phase — one in which political equations once considered impossible may increasingly become part of the state’s evolving reality.While the BJD fielded corporate honcho-turned-politician Santrupt Misra as its official nominee, Patnaik declared urologist and former vice-chancellor of Odisha University of Health Sciences, Datteswar Hota, as the “common candidate” backed by the Congress. 

40 in fray for 37 RS seats  Forty candidates are in the fray for 37 Rajya Sabha seats, but elections are likely to be held on March 16 only for one seat each in Haryana, Odisha, and Bihar.Candidates for the remaining 34 seats are expected to be declared elected unopposed on Monday evening.Among those likely to be elected unopposed are Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Nitin Nabin, both from Bihar, as well as Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar faction) from Maharashtra, who is the joint candidate of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi.