France faces fresh wave of protests amid deepening budget deadlock

By Ania Nussbaum

 

France is bracing for a day of strikes and demonstrations over the cost of living, extending more than a month of protests, as parliamentary talks over next year’s budget remain deadlocked.

 

The country’s main unions from the public and private sectors have called for a nationwide mobilization, bringing together disparate sources of anger, including the grassroots Yellow Vest movement, which emerged in 2018, and students who began protesting in September against overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and deteriorating school buildings.

 

The political backdrop is hardly conducive to compromise: With just six months to go before the presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron’s critics are seeking to showcase their agendas and channel public anger to bolster their political platforms.

 

 

“The demands of the high school and students’ movement should not depend on the adoption of the budget bill,” Eric Coquerel, the leader of the National Assembly’s finance committee and a member of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left party, posted on X. “The government can respond by switfly opening additional credits” during parliament discussions aimed at fine tuning budget needs for this year.

 

More than half a million people took part in marches across France in mid-October, with violence and looting disrupting demonstrations and damaging public buildings and stores. 

 

While Macron’s government has said that it wasn’t prepared for the scale of protests on Oct. 17 and the accompanying violence, sharply increased policing since then and requirements that marches take place outside of city centers has allowed for largely peaceful demonstrations and reined-in late-day violence since then. At the same time, unrest has also emerged elsewhere in Europe, including Germany, Belgium and Portugal.

 

On Thursday, the train operator SNCF expects disrupted traffic on local and regional lines and some disturbances to high-speed traffic, while most of the Paris metro system is expected to run. Dockworkers have also called a strike, and the education ministry estimates that some 18% of personnel will strike in public primary schools. Among the protesters’ demands is a higher-than-planned increase in the minimum wage.

 

On Thursday, the train operator SNCF expects disrupted traffic on local and regional lines and some disturbances to high-speed traffic, while the Paris police prefecture has closed at least 25 metro stations in Paris, according to the public transport operator RATP. Dockworkers have also called a strike, and the education ministry estimates that some 18% of personnel will strike in public primary schools. Among the protesters’ demands is a higher-than-planned increase in the minimum wage.

 

Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has emphasized the law-and-order component of her program, while Mélenchon has focused on social issues and police violence. 

 

Macron, meanwhile, has largely blamed surging energy prices, social media and the “ultra-left” of fueling violence. Some 70,000 police agents will be mobilized, as many as last Saturday, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said.

 

The political and fiscal uncertainty has spilled into financial markets. The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields — a closely watched gauge of perceived risk, with German debt serving as the euro area’s benchmark — reached 178 basis points last month, up from 85 at the beginning of September. Such levels hadn’t been approached since the euro-area debt crisis in 2011. 

 

Investors have been selling French bonds in recent weeks in part due to concerns about the deficit and doubts over whether a minority government can push spending cuts through parliament.

 

The National Assembly is set to reject the budget bill on a first reading this week after a flurry of amendments from different opposition groups. That means the original draft will be sent for discussion in the Senate.

 

The government could still resort to Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass the bill without a vote, subject to a no-confidence motion, or use a decree implement its budget proposal to sharply constrain spending and raise tax revenue to meet its target of reducing the deficit to 5% of gross domestic product in 2027.

 

The deficit is set to widen to 5.4% of economic output this year, while rising borrowing costs add to the pressure. The economy is also suffering: Output fell in the third quarter and monthly consumer confidence fell to a 13-year low.