Trump's peace plan faces toughest test in deweaponising Hamas in Gaza

David M Halbfinger & Adam Rasgon

 

Getting Israel’s hostages released from Gaza and stopping the war may have taken two years and the direct efforts of the American president and the leaders of several Arab and Muslim nations.

 

But that was almost certainly the easy part. Getting Hamas to give up its weapons, and demilitarising the Gaza Strip — key preconditions for Israel to pull out of Gaza fully, as both US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Monday — could prove a lot harder.

 

Then there are the other issues in Trump’s 20-point plan, which outlined a comprehensive solution for Gaza. In full, it also called for the establishment of an international force to help maintain security in the territory, an ambitious effort to rebuild Gaza’s economy and infrastructure, and the creation of a temporary Palestinian governing committee, whose work would be overseen by an international board.

 

 

During the talks leading up to the cease-fire in Gaza, provisions for who would run the enclave on “the day after” the war was over were among the most complicated and vexing — so much so that they were eventually severed from the cease-fire talks and put off until a second phase of negotiations.

 

“Phase 2 has started,” Trump said. He predicted “tremendous progress”. “It’s peace in the Middle East,” he said. “Everyone said it’s not possible to do. And it’s going to happen.”

 

Yet, Monday’s kickoff in Sharm el-Sheikh aside, it is unclear even when Phase 2 talks will formally begin and where they will be held. And both Israeli and Palestinian analysts said it was easier to imagine things going sideways than to imagine Trump’s plan being fully realised.

 

Israeli analysts and officials said the likeliest outcome was that Phase 2 of the talks would become bogged down. They envisioned the status quo lingering for so long that it takes root, with Hamas still armed, and the Israeli military refusing to withdraw fully from Gaza. In that circumstance, they also foresaw the Israeli military treating the group much as it now treats Hezbollah in Lebanon: occasionally striking Hamas militants or their weapon depots from afar.

 

Despite Trump’s repeated, unqualified declarations that the war is over, backsliding on either side could threaten a renewal of fighting, analysts said.

 

Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy and distinguished fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, warned of the influence of domestic politics. 

 

“If it turns out in four or five weeks that the general mood in the country is that this war was an awful round, but only another round, and Hamas is back, I can see Netanyahu trying to correct that,” Novik said, alluding to the possibility of a resumption of hostilities. “All you need is a Hamas provocation and a disproportionate Israeli reaction, and you can have a spiral.” Hamas, experts close to the militant group said, is willing to make certain moves to enable the reconstruction of Gaza, but it still wants to retain some influence over the territory’s future.

 

“Hamas is willing to offer some concessions to enable the rehabilitation of Gaza, but it will not evaporate,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas. “Its focus is on quiet. It wants to be part of the solution, and it won’t be an obstacle to stability.”