US budget deficit falls slightly to $1.78 trillion on record tariff revenue

By Daniel Flatley

 

The US budget deficit declined slightly for the 2025 fiscal year as tariff revenue hit a record high, though the pace of borrowing remains historically elevated at a time of economic expansion and financial stability. 

The deficit for the fiscal year was $1.78 trillion, down from $1.82 trillion in 2024, a drop of 2 per cent, according to figures released by the Treasury Department Thursday. The gap largely echoed a Congressional Budget Office estimate published last week.

 

President Donald Trump’s dramatic tariff hikes helped spur a net $195 billion in tariff revenue for the fiscal year, which ended September 30. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the US could take in as much as $500 billion annually in tariff revenue. The legal basis for a large swath of those levies remains under scrutiny, however, with a case pending at the Supreme Court. 

 

 

Trump’s latest tax legislation, signed in July, is also set to affect the federal budget. Thursday’s release showed a slide in corporate tax receipts for the month of September, in part reflecting measures included in that so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Gross corporate tax receipts plunged some 41 per cent, to $65 billion.

 

As a share of gross domestic product, the deficit for 2025 is estimated at 5.9 per cent, a Treasury official said, down from 6.3 per cent last year. That’s based on an internal Treasury estimate, the official said, as official GDP data for the July-through-September quarter are still pending.

 

Spending Drivers

Bessent has said he wants to see the deficit ratio come down to “something with a three in front of it” by the end of Trump’s second term in office. A 3 per cent ratio is something of an international standard for fiscal probity — serving as the level euro region nations are supposed to adhere to.

 

“Strong private sector led growth alongside constrained federal spending means the deficit to GDP will take care of itself,” Bessent said in a post to X. “FY 2025’s deficit to GDP is now projected to be under 6 per cent. And with continued fiscal restraint, we can reach 3 per cent by 2028.”

 

Total outlays for the fiscal year increased to $7 trillion from $6.7 trillion the previous year, an increase of 4 per cent, according to Treasury.

 

Many economists see the latest tax law eroding revenue growth over the coming decade, worsening the already-steep trajectory for federal borrowing. The Tax Policy Center estimated that it will increase federal debt by $4.2 trillion, or 9 per cent of GDP, by 2034.

 

Rising spending on interest on the national debt and on Social Security remain key drivers of the outsize deficits the US has been running in recent years.

 

Outlays for the Social Security Administration were $1.6 trillion in 2025, an increase of 8 per cent over the previous fiscal year’s total of $1.5 trillion. Spending on Health and Human Services climbed 10 per cent, propelled by Medicare and Medicaid.

 

Gross outlays for interest on the public debt weighed in at a record $1.22 trillion for the fiscal year, up 7 per cent from 2024.

 

The deficit was held down by a policy change affecting federal student loan plans, according to the Treasury official. The Education Department saw a $233 billion shrinkage in its outlays for the 2025 fiscal year.