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A recent report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday has sounded an alarm on climate change, warning that there is a 70 per cent chance of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029.
This comes at a time when 180 of the 195 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) countries are yet to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) or climate plans for 2031-35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30).
Climate plans are crucial to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The warning follows the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme Copernicus Climate Change Service’s March forecast on the global average temperature breaching the 1.5°C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current warming trend continues.
The annual average global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average for 1850-1900, according to the report titled ‘WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029).’ The report emphasised the need for continued climate monitoring for informed decision making and adapting to the growing effect of climate change.
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It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record.
Although unlikely, there is also a 1 per cent chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years.
However, long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C.
Citing the 10 warmest years on record, WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett said that the new report provides no sign of respite over the coming years. He said, “...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” Barrett said in a statement.
The year 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first year to breach 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
The 1.5°C threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst effect of climate change.
A permanent breach of the 1.5°C limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over 20 years.
WMO warned that temporary breaches of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency.
“Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heat waves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,” the WMO report said.
Arctic warming in the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over 3.5 times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the 1991-2020 baseline.
Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk were expected for March 2025-2029.
Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel region in Africa, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon.
In the case of South Asia, the WMO forecast indicated that the region, which was wetter than average in recent years, except 2023, will continue to experience it till 2029. But it may not be the case for all individual monsoon seasons during this period.
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