Top electric vehicle makers rev up projections, see higher sales

Manufacturers say 1.5 million two-wheelers could be sold in FY24

Buoyed by the sharp increase in electric two wheeler sales in the festival months which shows no sign of abating, electric scooter makers are increasing their earlier sales projections along with the expected speed of conversion of consumers from ICE to electric.

Okinawa Auto Tech founder and managing director Jeetender Sharma says he expects sales in the next five months of the financial year to go up. 

“We expect the industry will hit over 800,000 electric two wheelers by FY23. In FY24, our expectation is that it will be much more than even double that number - at 1.6 million,” said Sharma. The industry expectation was that the figure would be around 600,000-70,000 in FY23 and then 1 million in FY24.  

Sharma says that the electric technology for two wheelers has matured, manufacturers have understood what the customer wants, and volumes are picking up.

Customers are becoming accustomed to the lower running costs of  electric two wheelers. “In pre-covid times, electric two wheelers were less than even 1 per cent of total two wheeler sales (ICE and electric) and now they have gone up to 4-5 per cent,” said Sharma.  He is hopeful that sales will reach 100,000 in this calendar year (January till November) and expects Okinawa’s sales to be  pegged at the same numbers as in October when it sold over 14,900 vehicles.

As of today, (based on VAHAN figures), Okinawa is just 8,000 vehicles away from that magic number of 100,000. The others in the race include Hero Electric, which has registered 84,891 vehicles in October and Ola Electric which has registered 81,830.

     

Greaves Cotton, which owns the Ampere electric scooter brand  and is among the top three players, shares Sharma’s outlook. Its executive chairman Nagesh Basavanhalli had earlier expected that 35 per cent of ICE scooters will be converted to electric by FY26-27.

“Now, however, we think it will get accelerated one year ahead. There are many reasons for it. The government impetus through incentives and its own purchase of electric fleets have all helped,” said Basavanhalli. 

He says that best case industry scenario projections were that sales could reach 900,000 in FY23 while the average case scenario was 600,000-700,000 per annum.

Basavanhalli believes that while 700,000 or 750,000 is possible, two caveats to higher growth need to be factored in. First, the surge in sales in October might be due to the festival season. Second, the new battery standards which come into play in phases from December 1 could prove to be a dampener as they require re-certification. That said, Basavanhalli, is nonetheless clear about the direction of the electric two wheeler market for FY24. “In FY21, the total electric two wheeler sales were only 250,000. This year, we will  do 700,000  or 750,000. What is not in doubt is that this will double in FY24.”

HOW THE TOP PLAYERS SEE THE MARKET

• Okinawa expects the market to hit 800,000 electric two wheelers by FY23.
• It is gearing up to hit 100,000 sales by November-end in calendar year 2022.
• Ampere expects the projection of conversion of 35 per cent of ICE scooters to electric to happen one year earlier.
• Both companies expect sales of electric two wheelers to hit 1.5-1.6 million in FY24.
• Vehicle makers say reaching sales of 900,000 is feasible but with two caveats: Is sales growth just a seasonal festival fad or is it here to stay? And can the forthcoming new battery standards slow down production?