India Coronavirus Dispatch: How prepared are we for the next pandemic?

Today in coronavirus news: Millennials are spreading the disease unawares; Delhi is warned about the risks in its testing method

Millennials drive the pandemic: Reports from around the world say millennials (those born between 1980 and mid-90s) and 'Generation Z' (those born between mid-90s and 2010) constitute the bulk of the infected by the coronavirus disease. State-wise data shows similar trends playing out in India. People aged 20-50 comprise 56.34 per cent of Maharashtra’s total caseload. In Uttar Pradesh, 49.84 per cent of the cases are among those aged 20 to 40 years. In Tamil Nadu, 82 per cent of the caseload was shared by people aged 13 to 60. The fact that the younger lot are driving the pandemic is not surprising, as most of them are asymptomatic and they are likely to socialise more. Many of them are completely unaware that they’re infected and hence put others at risk. A similar trend was noticed in the case of Spanish Flu over a century ago when those aged 20-40 accounted for 70-80 per cent of the cases even as higher mortality was observed in those aged over 60. Read more here.

Glaring gaps in Kerala Model: An expert panel constituted by the Kerala government has found that the state is undercounting Covid-19 deaths. The panel report has said that the process of counting deaths in the state is "ambiguous" following a change in the criteria July 20 when the state decided not to include patients with comorbidities in the tally. Further, experts in the state say that the government is not counting half the deaths. They say the actual death toll is 345. However, the official figures stand at 191. The panel has further requested the Vijayan government to reverse its decisions and audit the tally again. Read more here.

Interview

Delhi managed to control the pandemic after battling a rapid spread in May and June, but concerns have been raised over its heavy reliance on RT-PCR tests. A former AIIMS director says testing can be buttressed by complementing it with RT-PCR. He says antigen tests have a 30 per cent false negative rate. However, these tests are less expensive. If a person tests positive after RT-PCR, it’s assumed that they’re infected by Covid-19 and if they test negative despite having symptoms, then a repeat test may be required. He adds that the average growth rate in Delhi dipped from August 11 to 18. If this trend is sustained till the month-end then it can be assumed that the pandemic is past its peak in the national capital. Read more here.

Comment

The next pandemic: The phenomenon of disruptive disease outbreaks is as old as humanity itself. In the past decade, we have seen outbreaks of Zika virus, Nipah, Ebola, Polio setback and H1N1. Rapid changes in human-animal interface, encroachments by agro industry and unhygienic live stock farming practices have created the perfect breeding ground for new viruses to emerge and cause havoc across the world. In fact, two-thirds of new diseases in the last decade have been zoonotic ones — caused by pathogens emanating from animals and their products and spilling over to human beings. The writer of this article says that Covid-19 is not the last — or the worst — pandemic and should be seen as a warning bell. Despite this, most countries have shown an utter lack of pandemic preparedness despite international guidelines being put together after the SARS outbreak. Read more here.

Covid-19 vs SARS: A mathematical model demonstrates one thing perfectly well: Covid-19 is about as contagious as the SARS outbreak but is far less deadly. This, the writer argues, is actually a problem. Since Covid-19 has longer incubation period (person exposed to virus may start experiencing symptoms only up to 14 days after exposure). SARS had more severe symptoms, hence patients would rush to hospitals. It also had a smaller incubation period. With Covid-19, however, most patients are asymptomatic or display only mild symptoms. This has become the primary reason for the huge spread of the disease. Another factor that could have played a role is the fact that the world is simply more interconnected now than it was before and hence much more vulnerable to viral outbreaks. Read more here.

Understanding Covid-19

Long-haulers: While the Covid-19 ordeal lasts for a couple of weeks in the case of most patients, there are a few who continue to experience symptoms for more than a month after they’re declared recovered. It’s still not clear who’s most at risk of suffering from lingering after-effects of the disease, but the trend seems more prevalent in those with severe symptoms. These symptoms include cardiac, neurological and other issues. The lingering symptoms, some experts say, mirror those in acute phases of Covid-19. Lung function and muscle mass seem to take a beating. One long-hauler says she can no longer walk more than 30 minutes a day. Fatigue, brain fog or memory loss and hearing impairment are some of the other issues most often reported by long haulers. Read more here.