Top headlines: 3% global GDP contraction projected; crude oil to struggle

From Morgan Stanley seeing a 3% contraction in global GDP to air passenger traffic projected to stay below 25%, here are the top headlines of the day

Morgan Stanley sees 3% contraction in global GDP; 12% dip in MSCI EM index

Morgan Stanley expects global economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 3 per cent in 2020 before rebounding to 5.9 per cent in 2021. As regards India, Morgan Stanley sees no growth (0 per cent) for 2020, but expects it to rebound sharply to 7.7 per cent in 2021, which makes India the fourth fastest growing economy in the Asia ex-Japan region – only behind Philippines (2021e GDP growth at 12.6 per cent), Malaysia (9.6 per cent) and China (9.2 per cent). “The global economy appears headed to its most severe recession in the post-war era, although there is a fair chance of rapid rebound in the second half of 2020-21 (H2-20/2021) on unprecedented policy easing, Covid-19 treatment,” wrote analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent report co-authored by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia and emerging market strategist. Read More

Crude oil may struggle to top $40/barrel mark despite a glimmer of optimism

The oil market bulls may have as much cabin fever as road users. The first sign of positive news and oil prices jumped over $10/barrel in a week in lockstep with drivers getting into their cars as some travel restrictions ease. But the road to recovery is likely to be long and bumpy. Gasoline consumption is a proxy for oil demand in many key countries – from the US to India – and there are tentative signals offering encouragement as some lockdown measures loosen. In the US, gasoline demand has climbed more than a third since its low at the start of April. Meanwhile, in India, fuel demand started recovering in the second half of April, with oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan confirming the pickup. Read More

Air passenger traffic to stay below 25% in September: Boeing CEO

Boeing Chief Executive Dave Calhoun does not expect passenger traffic to reach even a quarter of its levels in September, creating the need for airlines to make "adjustments" as they weather the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In an interview with NBC to be aired on Tuesday, Calhoun said: "Traffic levels will not be back to 100%. They won't even be back to 25%. Maybe by the end of the year, we approach 50%. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines." Read More

Covid-19 impact: Richard Branson to sell 25 mn shares in Virgin Galactic

Billionaire Richard Branson’s Virgin Group said on Monday that it may sell up to 25 million shares of space tourism company Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc to raise funds amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The company said it intends to use the proceeds to support its portfolio of global leisure, holiday and travel businesses that have been affected by the impact of the coronavirus. Read More

No increase in lease rent for SEZ units in FY21 due to coronavirus: Centre

The Centre on Monday gave interim relief to Special Economic Zone (SEZ) units from any increase in lease rent on account of Covid-19 outbreak. As per an official communication from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the relief measure was instituted in consultation with the Department of Expenditure on account of the Covid-19 outbreak. Consequently, there will not be any increase in the lease rent for the SEZ units for the FY 2020-21 and payment of lease rent of the first quarter is to be deferred up to July 31, 2020, for all SEZ units. Read More