Morgan Stanley sees 3% contraction in global GDP; 12% dip in MSCI EM index

The global economy appears headed to its most severe recession in the post-war era, although there is a fair chance of rapid rebound in the second half of 2020-2 on unprecedented policy easing

Morgan Stanley expects global economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 3 per cent in 2020 before rebounding to 5.9 per cent in 2021. As regards India, Morgan Stanley sees no growth (0 per cent) for 2020, but expects it to rebound sharply to 7.7 per cent in 2021, which makes India the fourth fastest growing economy in the Asia ex-Japan region – only behind Philippines (2021e GDP growth at 12.6 per cent), Malaysia (9.6 per cent) and China (9.2 per cent).

“The global economy appears headed to its most severe recession in the post-war