 "Fiscal deficit target for FY17 'challenging': FinMin official")
Earlier this month, the official mid-year economic analysis struck a note of caution by saying there was a case for re-assessment of the medium-term fiscal consolidation road map. This, it said, was due to additional spending due to the recommendations of the pay commission and the higher pension payout for former military personnel next year.
The revised estimate for total tax revenue is likely to be Rs 25,000 crore less than the budget estimate of Rs 14.5 lakh crore, the official, who did not want to be identified, told reporters. Adding that the government was exploring options to secure higher dividend payment from state-run companies.
In the April-November period, first eight months of the financial year, indirect tax revenue was Rs 4.38 lakh crore or 67.8 per cent of the full-year aim of Rs 6.46 lakh crore. Direct tax revenue in that period was Rs 3.69 lakh crore or 46.3 per cent of the full-year target. Revenue from disinvestment might also be short of the full-year aim of Rs 69,500 crore, by about Rs 50,000 crore, the official said.
The government has so far raised only Rs 12,600 crore through disinvestment, after having budgeted at the year's start for Rs 28,500 crore from strategic stake sales and Rs 41,000 crore from selling equity in state-run companies.
It is likely to, while setting 2016-17's budget goals, estimate crude oil prices below $50 a barrel, the official added. This financial year's budget estimate is based on $70 a barrel. The benchmark Brent crude oil contract was trading on Wednesday at $36.99 a barrel. Low oil prices are helping push economic growth through public investment, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on Wednesday.
The government will include Rs 5,000 crore for bank recapitalisation in the next supplementary set of demands before Parliament, the official also said. This part of Rs 70,000 crore of capital infusion planned over four years for government-owned banks.