Second Covid-19 wave a downside risk in Q1, says Finance Ministry

Impact on the economy is expected to be muted compared to first Covid wave, says report

The finance ministry on Friday said the second wave of the pandemic had posed a downside risk to economic activities in the April-June quarter of 2021-22.
 
However, its impact on the economy is expected to remain muted compared to the first wave.
 
The ministry’s Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), in its “Monthly Economic Review” for April, said “the second wave in India is witnessing a much higher caseload with new peaks of daily cases, deaths and positivity rates and presents a challenge to ongoing economic recovery”.
 
Pinning hope on vaccines, the report said: “April saw a doubling of global vaccination rates and a concomitant lowering of average transmission rates in countries with high vaccination rates. With vaccines doubly effective in battling the spread and shielding the economy, global co-operation is critical to ensuring availability of vaccines in all countries and addressing inter-country disparities in vaccination rates at the earliest.”
 
Learning to “operate with Covid-19, as borne by international experience, provides a silver lining of economic resilience amid the second wave”, the report said.
 
Recognising the second wave impact, it said in April the momentum in economic recovery since the first wave had been moderated. Some high-frequency indicators such as e-way bills and power consumption have shown some sequential moderation in the second half of April, resulting from localised movement restrictions, the report noted.
 
The report has come at a time when global rating agencies, including Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings, have slashed India’s GDP growth forecast.
 
Fitch lowered the projection to 9.5 per cent while S&P revised it down to 9.8 per cent.
 
Talking about the fiscal position, the ministry said the central government had witnessed improvement in the recent months with a revival in economic activities during the second half of FY21.
 
According to provisional figures, net direct tax collection in FY21 is 4.5 per cent higher than the revised estimates (RE) and 5 per cent higher than in FY20.
 
Net indirect tax collection in FY21 was 8.2 per cent higher than the RE and 12.3 per cent than the collection in FY20.
 
Goods and services tax (GST) collection has registered good growth and the mop-up exceeded Rs 1 trillion in each of the last six months.
 
It also added that GST registered another record high of Rs 1.41 trillion in April, which shows continual economic recovery.
 
However, the pandemic has hit market sentiment as the Nifty and Sensex recorded losses of 0.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, in April, on account of the rupee, which depreciated by 2.3 per cent to reach Rs 74.51. This was mirrored by net foreign portfolio outflows of $1.18 billion in April.
 
Domestic financial conditions continue to remain comfortable with the Reserve Bank of India’s support to liquidity, with open market operations worth Rs 3.17 trillion done in 2020-21, it said.
 
While overall financial conditions remained accommodative, the report said, credit growth continued to be muted at 5.3 per cent as of April 9.
 
Meanwhile, industrial production showed mixed trends. The index of industrial production (IIP) in February 2021 registered a broadbased decline of 3.6 per cent (YoY) and 3.9 per cent against the previous month, the eight-core sector index posted a growth rate of 6.8 per cent (YoY) in March 2021 and 11.1 per cent compared to February 2021.
 
E-way bills, in terms of value generated, reached Rs 17.36 trillion in April compared to Rs 3.9 trillion in April last year and Rs 14.8 trillion in April 2019. Growth since April 2019 showed an increased formalisation of the economy, the report highlighted.
 
On sectoral performance, the report said agriculture continued to be the silver lining with record foodgrain production estimated in the ensuing crop year on the back of predicted normal monsoons.