Brexit will make UK "permanently poorer", warns govt

The UK government Monday launched its official economic research to warn the British public that Britain will be "permanently poorer", with the cost to households estimated at 4,300 pounds, if they voted to leave the European Union in the referendum onJune 23.

UK Chancellor George Osborne said the 200-page analysis by his Treasury office found that the UK economy would be 6% smaller than what the Europe's second-largest economy would otherwise be by 2030 in the event of Brexit.

The short-term effect would be a "profound economic shock and real instability" and it was "complete fantasy" to expect that the UK could negotiate an advantageous trade deal with the EU if it withdrew, he said.

The smaller size of the economy projected in the report was the equivalent of 4,300 pounds per household, he said.

"Under any alternative, we'd trade less, do less business and receive less investment, and the price would be paid by British families. Wages would be lower and prices would be higher.

"The most likely result is that Britain would be poorer by 4,300 pounds per household. That is 4,300 pounds worse off every year, a bill paid year after year by the working people of Britain," he said.

"The conclusion is clear: for Britain's economy and for families, leaving the EU would be the most extraordinary self- inflicted wound," he added.

'The long term economic impact of EU membership and alternatives' document assesses UK's relationship with the EU against the three existing alternative models: membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway; a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between theEUand Switzerland, Turkey or Canada; and World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with theEU, like Russia or Brazil.

"The Treasury's analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left theEUand adopted any of these models. Productivity andGDPper person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving theEU," said the report, that marks the first major move by the David Cameron- led government to convince voters to opt to "Remain" in the EU in the June referendum.

The analysis finds that the annual loss ofGDPper household under the three alternatives after 15 years would be: 2,600 pounds in the case ofEEAmembership; 4,300 pounds in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement; 5,200 pounds in the case ofWTOmembership.

"Leave" campaigners, including Indian-origin minister Priti Patel and London mayor Boris Johnson, have claimed there would be no downsides to leaving, and suggested the UK could ape Canada's trade arrangement with the EU.

The "Vote Leave" camp immediately dismissed today's report as "just the latest erroneous pro-EU economic assessment published by the government over the last 40 years".
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Meanwhile, Patel has been actively campaigning for the Leave camp, travelling to rallies around the country.

She has highlighted the pressure on British public services as a result of uncontrolled EU migration and stressed that it is not "racist" to speak out about that.

She said: "I don't subscribe to this view that it is racist to speak about immigration and I say that as a daughter or immigrants from decades ago. Our job is to articulate and represent the concerns of the British public - and we should be doing that whatever our backgrounds are."

The Gujarati-origin Conservative Party MP has in the past made specific reference to Indian students, sports men and women and priests who are blocked from the UK due to rules that "discriminate against our Commonwealth friends".

She said: "As the Prime Minister's UK-India Diaspora Champion, I have heard the heartbreaking stories from families up and down the country where relatives from India who they have not seen for years have been unable to come here for a special occasion.

"I have also seen the cases of Kabaddi players struggling to get permission to play in the UK and showcase their sport. Temples and gurdwaras face uphill battles securing visas for priests. Students who want to study in the UK - some of the brightest and best from around the Commonwealth - are being put off... How can it be right that our membership of the EU can lead to, sportsmen, chefs, and students facing restrictions, and families being left divided.

"Byvotingtoleavethe EU, we can take back control over our borders and immigration policy."

The campaign for the referendum on both sides is now gathering momentum after it was officially launched last week.