Emkay Global's top conviction ideas for September
Chambal Fertilisers; BUY; Target Price: Rs 158
Fertiliser segment enjoys higher ROCE at 14-15% compared to the Shipping segment where ROCE is ~5-6%. Due to the huge capex, we expect ROCE to remain depressed over FY18-19, post which it should come back to 15% from FY20E. We assign a BUY rating, valuing the company at 12x FY19E EPS of Rs13.2.
Cholamandalam Finance; ACCUMULATE; Target Price Rs 1,350
Cholamandalam Finance (CIFC) has built a well-diversified and de-risked product portfolio, which has insulated it from the CV downcycle. With 1) growth returning and asset quality improving in Vehicle Finance, 2) low overall Auto Financing market share and 3) expectation of revival in Home Equity (HE; LAP) portfolio post demonetisation, we believe CIFC is better placed than its peers.
Indian Oil; BUY; Target Price: Rs 496
Stable GRM expectation of +US$5/bbl in the next 4-5 quarters, complimented by robust growth in marketed volume by c5.6% yoy in FY18E and stable marketing margin in FY18E will lead to a c36% yoy growth in FY18E EPS. Moreover, ROE should stay healthy at 21% in FY18.