Nifty to remain range bound at 5,400-5,500

The Nifty futures faced resistance above 5,460 and maintained support at 5,414, but closed in a Doji pattern. This indicates a lack of support at higher levels. The intraday trading pattern suggests profit-booking in the July series and a rollover of long position in the August series. A price projection on the basis of time-price opportunity (TPO) data warns of resistance for the Nifty above 5,467, with value-based support expected at around 5,400.

The intraday trading saw more sell-side trades in the July series and more buy-side trades in the August series. Traders seems to have unwound intraday build-up in the July futures, as depicted by the fact that 5.80 million shares were shed in open interest (OI) by close of trade, compared to an intraday build-up of eight million shares.

The August futures saw a strong long build-up as the futures closed at a 10-point premium to spot and added 5.82 million shares in OI. The rollovers in the August series two days before the expiry of the July series amounted to 15.03 million shares, marginally higher than what was recorded in the same period last month.

The July futures holds an OI of 20.05 million shares, compared to 22.68 million shares in the June series at the same time last month. This means new players have built up positions in the August series, while existing players are unwinding their positions in the July series.

Profit booking was seen in the 5,400-strike call of the July series and a fresh OI build-up in the 5,500-strike call. The 5,400-strike put unwinding of 900,000 shares in OI was mostly through a change of hands. This clearly indicates that the Nifty may go down below 5,400 levels and is unlikely to move above 5,500 before the expiry of the July series.

The 5,300-strike put holds maximum OI among puts, which shows a strong support level for the Nifty. Among stocks futures, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India (SBI) and Bajaj Auto gained between 2.2 and 5.4 per cent on short-covering and a long build-up in the August series. ICICI Bank gained over four per cent on strong volumes above Rs 911.

According to TPO data, a fresh upside can be expected around Rs 940. SBI saw a 54 per cent rollover on account of the long build-up in the August series. The stock is expected to move around Rs 2,477, TPO data shows.