Ind-Ra: Markets to Stay Range Bound

Market activity will stay muted and range bound in the coming week and in absence of any major data releases, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). The 10-year G-sec yield could trade at 6.46%-6.57% (6.51% at close on 23 November 2016) in the current week. The rupee is likely to trade at 67.6/USD-68.1/USD (67.85/USD at close on 23 November 2016).

Bond Market to Consolidate in Near-term: Following the US Fed rate hike and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) hawkish rhetoric, bond yields surged with the benchmark 10-year hovering around the 6.5% mark. Market is likely to pivot around the existing levels in the near term, with the overall bias towards yields inching higher. An uptick in global yields or a potential surge in crude oil price will keep the domestic debt market's tone cautious.

Rupee to Remain Anchored: Despite the sharp weakness in peers and heavy portfolio outflows in debt and equity markets, the rupee has clawed back and recouped part of the losses following the US election outcome. The rupee strengthened 1.5% from its all-time lows in one month period. Ahead of year end, the rupee is likely to stay anchored at the current levels.

Interbank Liquidity Surplus Continues: The RBI continues to sterilise additional liquidity in the system - through a mix of both reverse repo window and issuance of cash management bills under the market stabilisation scheme. The bills have enabled the RBI to absorb liquidity worth INR4.6 trillion on 16 December 2016. With the official deadline of deposits approaching (31 December 2016), Ind-Ra believes the consequent influx of deposits will keep the system in the surplus mode.

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