High heels & chignons as economy indicators

I have written in these very columns earlier on the Lipstick Effect — enunciated first by Leonard Lauder, the chair of Estee Lauder, who noted that following the terrorist attacks of September 2001, his company sold more lipstick than usual. As a result, he theorised that lipstick is a contrary economic indicator. Consumers, Lauder felt, still spend money on small indulgences during recessions, economic downturns, or when they personally have little cash. They may not have enough to spend on big-ticket luxury items; however, many still find the cash for purchases of small luxury items, such as premium lipstick. Hence the nomenclature Lipstick Effect came to be coined. 

Similarly, there is the Hemline Index. It was first theorised in 1926 by the economist George Taylor, and stated that skirts get shorter during times of financial prosperity and longer in a recession. But today one wonders if there could be a parallel theory at work for women’s shoes? As we approach an era of Covid measures being relaxed and spending gradually increasing, can the height of ladies’ heels be a good economic predictor of a boom or bust era?
 

The exaggerated heel has been trending (a possible harbinger for the so-called Roaring 20s) while the hashtag #pleaserheels (named after the high-arched shoe) has had more than 118m views on TikTok! A few months ago, Beyoncé paired a black Versace dress with a barbie pink jacket and matching pair of super heeled shoes. Earlier in the month, Lady Gaga wore baby blue body-con athleisure with some extreme platform heels. Carrie Bradshaw 2.0 continues to sport super- heeled shoes, as evident from photos from the set of Sex and the City revival show, And Just Like That. The shoes even made it to the White House — when Olivia Rodrigo matched her Chanel suit with some superstacked heels. Men’s fashion too continued to flirt with the exaggerated heel: Kanye West’s Donda album was accompanied by a Balenciaga look featuring black platform heels straight out of Kiss’s glam-rock wardrobe. Bollywood has been a bit slow on the uptake of this fashion trend but Deepika Padukone has been known to favour high-heels from Solace London and Balenciaga in recent months. 

Trevor Davis, a former consumer products expert at IBM, came up with a theory that matched heel length with economic upturns. “The index worked by analysing social media and other online sources for influencer and consumer references to shoes and boots where there was either a specific height of heel mentioned, like ‘four inches’ or a phrase that could be equated easily to a height,” he says. “We then correlated that with a variety of indicators of economic performance to get the index.” He says the data revealed that when economic indicators turned down the heel height initially went up, but if the economy remained in a recession state for more than a few months then heel heights went down.

Davis and his team also found that people were using fashion as a way to navigate through hard times. “We interpreted this as an initial pursuit of glamour to counteract the cold economic winds,” he says. “But with lengthy downturns, an austerity mindset shifted the consumer mood and less ostentation became the norm, and heel heights declined.” Although the index was conceived before the pandemic, Davis says that he sees a link between the increased heel we are seeing now and a post-Covid economic boom. “I would expect some of the pent-up spending to be diverted to increased heel height to match a lighter mood and a sense of freedom and escape,” he says.

There is another interesting indicator of economic health — this time from Japan. And for good measure it is called the Japanese Haircut Indicator. Kao, Japan’s second-largest cosmetics firm, has been conducting regular surveys of women on the streets of Tokyo and Osaka for decades. Until the early 1990s, when Japan’s economic bubble burst, 60 per cent of women in their 20s kept their hair long. During the 1990s economic slump, short hair — defined as above the collarbone — became the dominant hairstyle for Japanese women. But since 2002, long hair regained some popularity — just as the economy started to expand.

A new factor, economists noted, that could affect the validity of hair length as an economic indicator was the rising popularity of the chignon! The word “chignon”, by the way, comes from the French phrase chignon du cou, which means nape of the neck. Chignons are generally achieved by pinning the hair into a knot at the nape of the neck or at the back of the head. The more numerous the chignons, the healthier the economy, say economists.

Many of these indicators may not be easily discernible in India — either due to lack of tracking or lack of data. But globally, high heels and longer hair do point to a more buoyant economy. What fun!

The writer is managing director of Rediffusion