The Development Paradox

The striking performance of Kerala on the demographic front has received great attention, both in India as well as outside. It has done remarkably well in areas like education, health and family welfare. In fact, many multilateral organisations have declared various programmes implemented in the state as model programmes.

However, this success has occurred at a time when the state has shown a dismal record in agricultural and industrial development, particularly, in employment generation. As a result, the so-called Kerala model of development is often referred to as the development paradox of Kerala.

Keralas Demographic Transition is an edited volume comprising more than 15 papers, most of which were originally presented at the International Congress on Kerala at Thiruvanathpuram in 1994. The papers broadly deal with issues relating to demographic transition, its determinants as well as its consequences. A separate section focuses on issues related to migration, an important component of this demographic change.

Employment and Unemployment in Kerala, on the other hand, examines the employment/unemployment trends. It mainly uses the results of the quinquennial surveys conducted by NSSO to arrive at various conclusions.

Zachariah argues that fertility decline was caused as much by historical developments as by policy interventions. P N Mari Bhat and Irudaya Rajan emphasise that the most important factor explaining the demographic transition in Kerala is its expanding female literacy. On the other hand, comparing the fertility differentials between Kerala and Madhya Pradesh, D Radha Devi argues that it is a myth that the spread of formal education among females will, by itself, bring about a drastic change in their reproductive behavior, irrespective of the social, cultural and economic milieu in which women live.

It is argued that future changes in birth rate, death rate and age-structure of the population are going to have a profound impact on the socio-political situation in Kerala. As a result of these changes, schools would become empty and a considerable part of the resources will have to be diverted to take care of the elderly. So the state needs to work out a policy framework to deal with the problems associated with ageing.

Does the Kerala model have anything to offer to other states? Several authors have touched on this issue. Some argue that since Keralas fertility and mortality decline is due as much to historical factors as to policy interventions, it is difficult to replicate it in other parts. But most agree that government-sponsored family planning programmes can make a dent in fertility rates. What is needed is interaction between family planning services and socio-economic conditions.

In the second book, Mathew presents various aspects of the problem of employment/unemployment. He has depicted various facets of the problem with the help of 60 tables. Mathew argues that the prevalence of educated unemployed in the state is mainly a fallout of the quantitative expansion of formal education at all levels without much qualitative upgradation.

One point that clearly comes out from both the books is that literacy and female education have played a determining role in the decline of fertility and mortality in Kerala. But it is difficult to sustain social development unless it is accompanied by economic development. Growth in social services has been achieved at a tremendous cost. Because of higher outlays on the social sector, the state government is finding it increasingly difficult to raise adequate resources to strengthen the commodity producing sectors. As a result, the economy is stagnating. The government has to consider alternative modes of financing education and health care.

Further, the states success in the field of health, which resulted in raising the life expectancy at birth to fairly high levels, is also creating other problems for the states finances. In fact, what is needed today is solid private investment in the commodity producing sectors and structural changes in the economy. Otherwise, the fruits of favourable social development will not be efficiently utilised.