PC sales may see steepest fall in 5-6 yrs: Gartner

The Indian personal computer (PC) — desktops and notebooks — market is expected to see a decline of 3.7 per cent in 2009, one of the sharpest in the past 5-6 years. The global PC industry is also predicted to see its sharpest unit decline in history, with PC shipments totalling 257 million units in 2009, a 11.9 per cent decline from 2008, according to research firm Gartner.

“This will be one of the worst years for the Indian PC market. In the fourth quarter of 2008 alone, the Indian PC market saw a fall of 9 per cent. In the worst case scenario, we see a decline of 3.7 per cent for 2009,” said Diptarup Chakraborti, principal research analyst, Gartner.

Both emerging and mature markets are expected to suffer unprecedented declines. Up to this point, emerging markets’ lowest collective growth was in 2002 (11.1 per cent). Mature markets’ lowest growth was in 2001 (a fall of 7.9 per cent). Both, says Gartner, will surpass these lows in 2009, with emerging markets expected to post a decline of 10.4 per cent and mature markets a decline of 13 per cent.

“Growth in both emerging and mature markets will be driven by similar dynamics even if the precise impacts vary somewhat. Slower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetime will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery firms up,” said George Shiffler, research director, Gartner.

“The impact of reduced replacements will be especially acute in the mature markets, where replacements are estimated to account for around 80 per cent of shipments,” Shiffler added.