Reliance Retail worth $143 billion, Jio valued at $135 billion: JP Morgan

A month after Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) Chairman Mukesh Ambani announced listing of RIL’s telecom arm, global bank JP Morgan has valued entire Reliance Retail at $143 billion and Reliance Jio Infocomm at $135 billion in its latest analysis.

 

JP Morgan said RIL’s consumer businesses are set to drive nearly all of the group’s earnings growth in the coming years. Reliance Retail’s December revenues could be supported by the recent GST cuts. A tariff increase at Jio is likely ahead of the IPO, it said.

 

“Reliance Retail and telecom now account for 54 per cent of total 2024-25 (FY25) consolidated Ebitda. In our estimates, they will account for almost all of the net Ebitda growth over the next three years,” JP Morgan analysts wrote in a September 30 report.

 

Ebitda stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation.

 

RIL's 83 percent stake in Reliance Retail is valued at ₹10.5 trillion ($118 billion), or ₹776 per share, based on a 34.5x blended multiple of FY27-FY28 Ebitda. JPMorgan forecasts segment Ebitda of ₹34,400 crore in FY27, rising to ₹39,000 crore in FY28. The brokerage noted that Reliance Retail trades below Avenue Supermarts’ 42x multiple, and said any crystallisation of valuation upside through an initial public offering (IPO) or stake sale could provide further gains.

 

RIL's 67 percent stake in telecom is valued at ₹8 trillion ($90 billion), or ₹592 per share, using a 13x multiple of FY27-FY28 Ebitda. The business is projected to deliver ₹86,400 crore of Ebitda in FY27, increasing to nearly ₹97,600 crore in FY28. JP Morgan expects a broader tariff increase ahead of Jio’s planned 2026 listing, noting this would support profitability.

 

By contrast, the brokerage has valued Reliance’s oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment at ₹4.85 trillion, or ₹358 per share, highlighting the shift in the company’s value composition from refining and petrochemicals to consumer businesses. Smaller valuations are ascribed to exploration and production, real estate, and semiconductor/renewables.

 

JP Morgan maintains its “Overweight” rating on Reliance with a September 2026 price target of ₹1,695, citing comfortable relative valuations, the prospect of positive free cash flow as telecom spending fades, and management’s guidance of keeping net debt-to-Ebitda below 1x. With an Ebitda run rate of about $20 billion annually, the brokerage says Reliance should turn cash-flow positive despite continued capex in new energy, retail, and petrochemicals.

 

Risks to the outlook include a major drop in O2C margins, the absence of tariff hikes in telecom, delays at the new energy complex, and a weaker earnings environment leading to higher debt. But JP Morgan stresses that “continued strong growth in the Retail segment’s Ebitda could also support valuations for Reliance stock”.