ADB keeps India's GDP growth projection for FY25 unchanged at 7%
Projection must be weighed against 'downside risks from weather events and geopolitical shocks', it says
 "ADB keeps India's GDP growth projection for FY25 unchanged at 7%")
India’s stronger-than-expected fiscal position could provide a further boost to its growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday while keeping the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for the current financial year (FY25) unchanged at 7 per cent.
The Manila-based bank, however, said in its report that this must be “weighed against downside risks” arising from weather events and geopolitical shocks.
India’s industrial sector is projected to see robust growth, driven by manufacturing and strong demand in construction led by housing, it said in its July Outlook. Agriculture is expected to rebound amid forecasts for an above-normal monsoon, while investment demand remains strong, led by public investment, it added.
“Bank credit is fueling robust housing demand and improving private investment demand. However, export growth will continue to be led by services, with merchandise exports showing relatively weaker growth,” the bank said.
The report said that forward-looking services PMI was well above its long-term average.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised India’s GDP growth projection for FY25 by 20 basis points to 7 per cent in its update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), amid a boost to private consumption, especially in rural areas.
For FY26, ADB has maintained India’s GDP growth projection at 7.2 per cent, as stated in its April Outlook.
The GDP expanded at 8.2 per cent in FY24, higher than the 7 per cent recorded in FY23, aided by a greater-than-expected expansion of 7.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to the provisional estimates of GDP growth released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The Reserve Bank of India has projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.2 per cent in FY25. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said last month that India was at the threshold of a “major structural shift” in its growth trajectory. He said the country was moving towards a path where 8 per cent GDP growth could be sustained yearly for a longer term.
ADB has slightly raised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific for 2024 to 5 per cent from a previous projection of 4.9 per cent, as rising regional exports complement resilient domestic demand. The growth outlook for 2025 is maintained at 4.9 per cent.
| ADB's GDP Growth Projection | ||||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
| April | July | April | July | |||
| People's republic of China | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Hong Kong, China | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | |
| India* | 8.2 | 7 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.2 | |
| Singapore | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Indonesia | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Thailand | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3 | 3 | |
| *Year 2024 refers to FY2024-25 ending March 2025. 2025 refers to FY2025-26 |
| ADB's GDP Growth Projection | ||||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | ||||
| April | July | April | July | |||
| People's republic of China | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | |
| Hong Kong, China | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | |
| India* | 8.2 | 7 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.2 | |
| Singapore | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Indonesia | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Thailand | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3 | 3 | |
| *Year 2024 refers to FY2024-25 ending March 2025. 2025 refers to FY2025-26 |