Global trade rebound may fade as export orders lose momentum, warns WTO

Global goods trade saw a notable rise in early 2025, but the outlook for the rest of the year remains subdued, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Thursday.

 

According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, the index rose to 103.5 from 102.8 in March, signalling above-trend trade volumes. The increase was largely driven by importers accelerating purchases in anticipation of higher tariffs.

 

However, the WTO cautioned that the momentum may be short-lived. Its forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, indicating that trade growth could slow in the months ahead.

 

The barometer is a composite leading indicator that provides real-time insights into global merchandise trade trends. Values above 100 suggest stronger-than-average growth, while those below 100 imply weakness.

 

The organisation also maintained its forecast of flat merchandise trade growth at just 0.1 per cent for the year. It warned that global trade could contract if the United States reinstates "reciprocal tariffs" or if policy uncertainty spreads more broadly.