Crushing regional players: After Delhi, is it Bengal, Kerala & TN for BJP?

BJP improves its record against another strong regional player- AAP. It is to be seen if the party continues the trend, with Assembly polls due in West Bengal, Puducherry, Kerala, Tami Nadu and Assam

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not only secured its best ever performance in Delhi, it has also shown since the Lok Sabha polls, that it finally has found a way to defeat strong regional parties in Assembly polls.

 

From the 2014 Lok Sabha polls to its 2024 edition, the BJP either secured single-party majorities, or emerged the single largest party. It has also won several states where it has faced the Congress, or a coalition led by the Congress. The list is long, but barring Uttar Pradesh, where its principal opponents have been the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP has found wresting states from the Congress easier than against strong regional players. 

 

The major states that had eluded the BJP until 2024 included Odisha, Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

 

The last few months have changed that. It would seem the BJP now has the measure of regional parties as well. While the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has the 'national party' status, it is either the ruling party or the principal opposition only in two states - Delhi and Punjab, which makes it a regional player.

 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where the Odisha Assembly polls were held simultaneously, the BJP defeated the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) for the first time during its Narendra Modi era. Modi has been the BJP's lead campaigner from the December 2013 round of Assembly polls until now. The BJP's Odisha win came after trying for 10 years. It had failed in its previous two attempts in 2014 and 2019 Assembly polls. The BJP now runs a state government in Odisha, a first for the party. 

 

In Andhra Pradesh, it did well to enter into an alliance with the Telugu Desam Party-Jana Sena, which eventually defeated the YSR Congress Party in the Assembly polls in May 2024. But Delhi was another state that had eluded BJP since 2014, with the AAP thwarting its attempts to secure a majority in Delhi in the 2015 and 2020 Assembly polls. 

 

In the Delhi Assembly polls in 2025, the BJP has secured its best ever performance in Delhi. It had won 49 seats with 42.82 per cent votes in 1993. In 2025, it is on course to win 48 seats with a vote share of 46 per cent.

 

Can BJP continue the winning streak in Bengal, TN and Kerala?

 

But next year’s round of Assembly polls would tell us if the trend continues. In April-May 2026, Assembly polls are due in West Bengal, Puducherry, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam.

 

The BJP runs a government in Assam. But it is Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu where it has, until now, failed to form governments. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it is not even the principal Opposition. However, it is Bengal where the BJP would hope to improve upon its 2021 performance. In 2021, after trying for several years, the BJP emerged the principal Opposition in Bengal in the 2021 Assembly polls. Only a three per cent vote share separated the BJP and the Trinamool Congress.

 

For the BJP, the next stop will be Bihar, where it emerged the second largest party, with the rival Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) winning the most seats, in the 2020 Assembly polls. In the October-November Assembly polls, the BJP would target coming as close to the majority mark on its own in the 243 member Assembly. However, Bihar has also been treacherous for the BJP as the 2015 Assembly polls showed when Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) aligned to decimate the BJP. 

 

The 2020 Assembly polls in Bihar was a close one. In the 2020 Assembly polls in Bihar, held in three phases from October 28 to November 7 that year, and in the wake of the Covid-19 forced migration of workers from across the country back to the state, a mere 12,768 votes of the 41.43 million polled that separated the winner and the loser. The Janata Dal United-Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition won 125 of 243 seats with a vote share of 37.26 per cent, defeating the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’, or grand alliance, that secured 110 seats with a vote share of 37.23 per cent.

 

Not so much Bihar, it will be Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in April-May 2026 that will tell us if the BJP has really found a way to outmanoeuvre other strong regional players.