Maharashtra, Jharkhand elections end: Credibility of exit polls at stake

As voting ends in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, attention now turns to exit polls as their credibility is under question after the recent Lok Sabha and Haryana misfires

Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections concluded today, with all eyes turning to the exit polls to get an early glimpse into whether the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the INDIA bloc will emerge victorious in the two states.

 

However, the credibility of these exit polls hangs by a thread, given their recent track record of glaring inaccuracies, most notably during the Lok Sabha and Haryana elections earlier this year.

 

Lok Sabha elections: A lesson in misplaced confidence

 

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha election results on June 4, exit polls across the board had predicted a resounding victory for the NDA, with several projecting a tally exceeding 400 seats for the alliance. Yet, when the votes were counted, the results told a different story.

 

While the NDA did secure a historic third consecutive term, it fell significantly short of the lofty expectations set by the exit polls. The BJP, which won 303 seats in 2019, managed only 240 seats this time, failing to secure a simple majority on its own. The Congress-led INDIA bloc, meanwhile, surpassed expectations, clinching 234 seats. The NDA’s final tally stood at 293 seats—far from the forecasted landslide.

 

These misleading predictions reverberated beyond the political arena, rattling financial markets. On June 3, optimistic exit poll forecasts had propelled the benchmark equity index to a record high. However, on June 4, as the actual results rolled in, the market experienced its worst crash in four years. Opposition parties later called for a probe by the stock market regulator, alleging potential manipulation by polling agencies and the ruling party.

 

Haryana: Another blow to exit polls’ credibility  

 

Haryana’s Assembly elections painted a similar picture of exit polls missing the mark. Nearly all major pollsters predicted a clear majority for the Congress, with estimates ranging between 50 and 62 seats in the 90-seat Assembly.

 

Buoyed by these forecasts, the Congress Haryana headquarters prepared for celebrations, with party workers distributing jalebis and laddoos as early trends showed the party in the lead. However, as counting progressed, the BJP staged a dramatic comeback, winning 48 seats and retaining power. The Congress was left grappling with the fallout of misplaced optimism.

 

Exit polls under fire from the Election Commission

 

The string of misfires has not gone unnoticed. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, during the announcement of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand election schedule in October, expressed sharp criticism of exit polls for creating "huge distortions" by raising expectations misaligned with actual results.

 

Kumar also took aim at news channels for airing speculative leads even before vote counting began, calling the practice "nonsense". He urged the media to introspect on the role it plays in shaping public perception during elections.  Maharashtra exit polls Live updates 

 

Maharashtra and Jharkhand: Will the polls get it right this time?

 

Maharashtra’s fiercely contested battle between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliances came to a close at 6 pm today, while voting in Jharkhand follows a similar timeline. With results set to be announced on November 23, the question looms large: can exit polls redeem themselves this time?