Saiyaara ignites box office, delivers high ROI with minimal hype

Industry estimates indicate the film is likely to deliver a staggering 6.6x return on investment

Yash Raj Films’ latest offering, Saiyaara, a contemporary love story starring two newcomers, has taken the domestic box office by storm, breaking the spell of lacklustre or flop releases that have plagued Bollywood for much of 2025. 

 

Released last Friday, the film is on track to deliver the highest return on investment (ROI) for any Bollywood film so far this year, according to trade analysts and major multiplexes. 

 

Made on an estimated budget of ₹60 crore, Saiyaara is projected to cross ₹170 crore in its first week alone, which ends today. 

 

Kamal Gianchandani, chief of Business Planning and Strategy at PVR Ltd, which, as the merged entity PVR-Inox, controls a majority of India’s multiplex screens, says the film has witnessed no drop in occupancy across the country, including in tier 2 and tier 3 cities.

 

“Occupancy remains high at 65–75 per cent daily, despite the number of screens expanding from 800 on opening day to 2,000 currently, due to overwhelming demand,” says Gianchandani. “We project Saiyaara will hit ₹300 crore in its second week, and then easily cross ₹400 crore. The real question now is: can it reach the ₹500 crore mark? We believe it can.” 

 

As of Wednesday, the film had collected ₹155.75 crore, with one day still left for the first week to end. Exhibitors say the film is poised to run successfully for at least another three weeks. Based on industry estimates and Gianchandani’s projections, it is likely to deliver a staggering 6.6x ROI. In just the first week, it is expected to earn more than three times its production cost. These figures don’t include revenue from OTT and TV rights, music sales, or global box office collections.

 

For comparison, the most successful film of 2025 until now has been Chhaava — a historical drama based on Sambhaji Maharaj, which generated a 4.7x return on a budget of ₹130 crore, raking in ₹615 crore at the domestic box office. Typically, box office revenues are shared roughly 50-50 between exhibitors and producers.

 

Film trade analyst Komal Nahta calls Saiyaara a “modern-day Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge (DDLJ)” for Yash Raj Films. “What’s interesting,” he says, “is how deeply it has resonated with audiences in tier 2 and tier 3 cities, something we haven’t seen in at least 15 years, and certainly not after the pandemic.” 

 

He adds that the film shows no signs of slowing down: “Occupancy on Tuesday was as strong as on Sunday, and collections on Tuesday and Wednesday matched those on Monday.”

 

Of course, Saiyaara is not the only love story to deliver such returns. In 2013, Aashiqui 2 earned ₹110 crore on a modest ₹15 crore budget — a 7.3x ROI. And DDLJ, made for just ₹4 crore in 1995, earned over ₹89 crore domestically, becoming one of Bollywood’s most successful blockbusters.

 

So what explains Saiyaara’s success?

 

Gianchandani believes one key indicator is how strongly the film has connected with the youth. The number of bags deposited at their multiplex lockers — students coming straight from class — has gone up nearly 50 times, he says. 

 

He also points out that most production houses have avoided casting newcomers since the pandemic, preferring bankable stars to ensure a strong opening weekend. But Yash Raj Films has bucked that trend. With minimal promotion, no media overexposure of the debutants, and a marketing campaign driven largely through social media, the film has proved that fresh faces can succeed on merit and audience connection alone.

 

Sandeep Goyal, chairman of Rediffusion, offers a cultural explanation: “Saiyaara blends old-school romance with modern aesthetics. It revives the ‘forever love’ narrative in an age of fleeting reels, capitalist fatigue, and emotionally starved storytelling. That’s what makes it so compelling, especially when most well-promoted films are flopping.” 

 

Given Saiyaara's success, Dharma Productions, which has co-produced Dhadak 2 with Zee Studios and Cloud 9 Pictures, has decided not to put off the film's launch that is scheduled for August 1, as was speculated -- even if that means having to compete with Ajay Devgn-starrer Son of Sardaar 2, which releases the same day.   

Top Bollywood movies in 2025
Movie	Week 1 collections (Rs crore)	Total Lifetime collections (Rs crore)	Budget estimate (Rs crore)
Saiyaara	170-plus*	154	60
Chhaava	225.28	615.39	130
Housefull 5	133.58	198.41	140
Raid 2	Rs 98.89	Rs 179.30	Rs 48
Sitaare Zameen Par	88.46**	165.01	90
Source: Koimoi, industry estimates

     

* Estimates, total collections are for 6 days

     

** Movie still in theaters