India eyes stealth edge with new submarines amid China's growing presence

Advanced Project 75(I) seen as urgent amid China's growing presence in Indian Ocean

The Indian Navy would get nine new advanced submarines in the coming years if the proposal is cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), according to a government source with knowledge of the matter.

 

While the CCS will have the final say, the Navy, the source said, is keen to buy the advanced submarines with enhanced stealth capability under the Project 75 (India), or P75(I) programme.

 

Six such submarines, estimated to cost between ₹90,000 crore and ₹1 trillion, would comprise the first purchase batch. Three additional submarines would be ordered a year after the main contract is signed, in line with the 2020 Defence Acquisition Procedure guidelines.

 

The Indian government is emphasising maritime security amid the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s expanding reach in the Indian Ocean region and Pakistan’s naval activity in the Arabian Sea. India is also looking to raise its naval profile as a member of the Quad, the security grouping comprising itself, the US, Japan and Australia.

 

“There’s an urgent requirement, particularly for the Indian Ocean region, as China’s naval presence grows, and with Pakistan also acquiring more submarines,” the source said. 

 

The deal could be finalised by spring if commercial negotiations are completed by the end of the year, the source said, adding that production would take three years to begin and the overall gestation period — from contract-signing to delivery — would be more than a decade.

 

“Given that the P75(I) is an entirely new project, the negotiations could take up to a year. Then a proposal will be submitted to the CCS for approval, after which the contract will be signed.”

 

The project will incorporate the latest technology but is expensive because it entails the transfer of design and construction know-how, localisation costs in indigenising mission-critical systems, pandemic-era inflation, and cost escalations in Europe and India that still impact equipment and system prices. It also carries an uncertainty — “the submarine design is at the concept stage”.

 

Categorised as a strategic partnership between Indian and foreign shipyards, the project focuses on submarines with an air-independent propulsion (AIP) system to enhance stealth.

 

In January, a joint bid by Indian state-owned company Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and German company ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems emerged as the only contender to work on this project after Indian private company Larsen & Toubro, along with Spanish state-owned shipbuilder Navantia, reportedly failed the technical evaluation.

 

India’s submarine programme would see a shift in foreign partnership — from France to Germany — if the proposal goes through. The move will likely affect the existing Project 75 (P75) Kalvari-class programme, under which six attack diesel-electric Scorpene submarines operated by the Indian Navy were built between 2006 and 2015. Mazagon was to construct three more submarines, upgraded with the AIP system in collaboration with the original equipment manufacturer, the French Naval Group, at an earlier estimated cost of ₹36,000 crore. 

 

The AIP for the additional submarines isn’t ready (although the vessel design is stable), and the perception is that the P75 is of an older generation. Plus, the Navy will have to eventually decommission Russian-made vintage submarines, the source said.

At this time, “no further orders are expected for the additional Scorpene submarines under the P75 programme”, the source added.

 

The P75(I) programme will benefit the Navy’s modernisation in the long term, but boosting its conventional strength in the near future without continuing the Kalvari class would be a decision with consequences for Indian shipyards, too. The delay in submarine construction will have a bearing on the workforce and revenues of such companies. The government is aware of how the timelines will shift but appears to be inclined towards a strategic choice, the source said.