Fiscal deficit likely to be at 4.75% in FY25; capex at Rs 62K cr: IndRa

The government will be able to register the fiscal deficit at 4.75 per cent in FY25, 0.19 per cent lower than the budget aim, by reigning in expenditure, domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research said on Wednesday.

The revenue expenditure, excluding subsidies, will be 0.12 per cent of GDP, lower than the budget estimate, the rating agency added.

Its chief economist and head of public finance Devendra Kumar Pant said the government capital expenditure will come out to be Rs 62,000 crore lower than the estimate of Rs 11.11 trillion.

Pant was quick to add that the government capex will still be 10.6 per cent higher than the year-ago period. The government was initially envisaging a 17.6 per cent growth in the key number.

Even as there is a dip in the government capital expenditure projected, the capex to GDP in FY25 at 3.21 per cent is estimated to be at a two-decade high, the agency said.

"The FY25 capex growth has been impacted by the general elections in May 2024, and capex in 1H FY25 shrank 15.42 per cent year-on-year. To achieve the FY25 (BE) target, capex in 2H FY25 must grow 52.04 per cent, which appears to be a daunting task," it added.

Among ministries, railways, and road, transport and highways will breach their FY25 capex allocations, the agency said.

There will be a slippage of 0.10 per cent of GDP on the subsidies front due to higher outgoes on food, fertiliser and petroleum subsidies, the agency said, pointing that the overall spending has been 54.55 per cent higher than the budgeted levels in the first half of the fiscal.

On the revenue expenditure, excluding subsidies, the rating agency's report said actual spending by 43 ministries other than civil aviation, railways, and road, transport and highways in the April-September period was less than 40 per cent of their allocation.

The FY25 gross and net tax revenue will come at 12.02 per cent of GDP and 8.08 per cent of GDP, respectively, which will be a 17-year high, the report said, adding that income tax and corporate tax are estimated to contribute 80.94 per cent and 10.53 per cent, respectively, to the additional gross tax revenue.

Non-tax revenue and disinvestment receipts are to be lower than the budgeted amount of Rs 5.46 trillion and Rs 78,000 crore, respectively, in FY25, it said.