Delhi-style EV policy across NCR may lift e-two-wheeler share beyond 30%

If Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan adopt Delhi's EV-only two-wheeler policy, electric two-wheelers could account for more than 30 per cent of registrations, based on FY26 trends

Electric two-wheeler penetration in the country could likely cross 30 per cent if Delhi government's latest electric vehicle (EV) policy is adopted by the three neighboring states of Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana and Rajasthan.

 

Industry associations have been advocating for a unified EV policy across the national capital region (NCR) to support the automotive industry. As many as 24 densely-populated districts - including Gurugram, Faridabad, Noida, Meerut, Alwar, Bharatpur, and Delhi, among others - are already considered part of the NCR. 

 

The New Delhi government last month unveiled a new policy that aims to push penetration of electric and alternative-fuel vehicles in a bid to cut back vehicular emissions that are a major contributor to the noxious air quality levels that choke the national capital every winter. 

 

A key element of the policy push is that no ICE (internal combustion engine) two-wheelers will be registered in the state starting April 1, 2028, effectively opening up that segment exclusively to electric two-wheelers. 

 

The projected percentage penetration of EV two-wheelers is calculated based on the number of two-wheelers (ICE, CNG, electric) registered with VAHAN over a one-year period.

 

Based on VAHAN registrations in the financial year ending March 2026, electric two-wheeler penetration is pegged at 6.6 per cent on an all-India basis. But if Delhi, Haryana, UP, and Rajasthan decide to register only electric two-wheelers from April 1 2028, the penetration of such vehicles is estimated to jump to 30.7 per cent, and likely to meet the Centre's projected target for 2030 much earlier.

 

The caveat for the calculation is that the number of electric two-wheelers and total two-wheelers remain at nearly the same levels as FY26 registration data.

 

However, the elephant in the room remains UP, the country's largest market for all types of two-wheelers, with sales of over 3.16 million such vehicles recorded in FY26.

 

Moreover, despite commanding 14.2 per cent of total two-wheeler registrations in the country, the share of EVs sold in the state is a paltry 3.9 per cent. A complete shift to only electric two-wheelers would drastically increase the number of electric two-wheelers in the state, and bolster their overall share at an all-India level.  

 

To put things into perspective, if Delhi remains the only state to adopt the electric two-wheeler only policy, it will push up all-India penetration to a mere 9 per cent. Based on FY26 sales figures, Delhi accounts for only 2.5 per cent of total two-wheeler sales in the country. Within the state, electric vehicles account for 7.3 per cent of total two-wheelers. 

 

If Haryana adopts the same model as Delhi, EV two-wheeler penetration at a national level will go up marginally to 11.7 per cent, while the addition of Rajasthan (which has 5.58 per cent share of total two-wheeler sales) into the mix will push it up to 16.7 per cent. Given that motorcycles account for 80 per cent of auto sales in these states, electric two-wheeler companies that have concentrated mostly on e-scooters will now have to pivot to more e-motorbikes if they want to take advantage of the policy, say experts.