Two-wheeler exports seen rising up to 20% as Africa demand recovers: Ind-Ra
Recovery in African markets, expansion into Latin America and Southeast Asia, and a rising share of premium products are expected to support export growth
 "Two-wheeler exports seen rising up to 20% as Africa demand recovers: Ind-Ra")
India’s two-wheeler exports are likely to surge 15-20 per cent in FY27, marking a third straight year of growth driven by recovering African demand and expansion across Latin America and Southeast Asia, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).
Exports grew 23 per cent year-on-year to a record 5.18 million units in FY26, surpassing the previous high of 4.44 million units in FY22. The momentum continued in the first quarter of FY27, when shipments increased 37 per cent.
The “export upcycle” appears structural rather than merely cyclical, the ratings agency said in a report. Indian manufacturers have broadened their geographic footprint, strengthened distribution networks, and introduced market-specific products. Notably, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil have joined India’s top 10 export destinations, easing the industry’s historical reliance on Africa.
Demand is also reviving across key African markets as inflation cools and foreign-exchange availability improves. Shipments to Nigeria — India’s top two-wheeler export market until FY24 — began recovering in FY26, though they sit at roughly 39 per cent of FY22 levels, leaving significant headroom for growth. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s gradual easing of vehicle import restrictions has offered an additional lift.
Low two-wheeler penetration, poor roads and reliance on motorcycles for public transport and last-mile delivery are expected to sustain medium-term demand across emerging markets. In Nigeria, commercial motorcycle-taxi operators drive an estimated 40 to 50 per cent of total demand, according to industry reports cited by Ind-Ra.
A rising share of premium products and a weaker rupee are further improving export realisations and profitability. While total export volumes recorded a compound annual growth rate of 3.9 per cent between FY22 and FY26, shipments of motorcycles above 200 cc surged 12.8 per cent and scooters 18.2 per cent.
Ind-Ra expects the West Asia conflict to have a limited impact as nearly 80 per cent of exports go to Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia and exposure to Gulf markets is relatively small.
Leading automakers like Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor have broadened their international footprint through overseas assembly and manufacturing units. At the same time, global brands are increasingly leveraging India as a cost-effective export hub, Ind-Ra noted.
Risks include rising commodity, freight and logistics costs, weak purchasing power in price-sensitive regions, currency swings, and potential import barriers. Competition from Chinese manufacturers is significant, especially in electric two-wheelers — where despite tripling in FY26, Indian exports still comprised under 1 per cent of total shipments.