India's foldable smartphone market gets ready for Apple-led big flip

3 million cumulative shipments by CY 2026 as Samsung braces for Apple's entry

India’s foldable smartphone market is projected to end calendar year (CY) 2026 with shipments of more than 650,000 units, according to Counterpoint Research estimates, as competition is expected to intensify with the long-awaited launch of Apple’s foldable iPhone globally and in India, slated for September.

 

Though still a niche segment, foldables are expected to account for 2-3 per cent of the overall smartphone market by value in CY26. This is because of their high average selling price (ASP), estimated at around $1,800 — about 5x the average ASP of a smartphone. 

Counterpoint expects the foldable smartphone market to grow 8 per cent in volume terms in CY26, a marked increase considering the overall smartphone market is projected to decline by 13-14 per cent, with shipments falling to around 133 million-134 million units. 

Since Samsung launched its first foldable smartphone in September 2019, cumulative shipments are expected to cross the 3 million mark for the first time by the end of CY26. By the end of CY25, cumulative shipments stood at 2.5 million units.

Samsung currently dominates the segment with 89 per cent share of foldable smartphone shipments, followed by Motorola with 8 per cent.  

However, the impact of Apple’s entry into the foldable smartphone market is unlikely to be fully reflected this year, as the launch is expected only in the latter part of the second half. As a result, Counterpoint analyst Shubham Singh estimates that Apple’s installed base of foldable iPhones will account for less than 1 per cent of India’s foldable smartphone market in CY26. Indian consumers, however, could surprise on the upside. 

Samsung, aware of the challenge from Apple, launched three foldable models across the world under the Galaxy Z series on Wednesday. Prices of the phones range from ₹1.24 lakh to ₹ 2.33 lakh in India. 

Motorola, meanwhile, has expanded its foldable portfolio with the recently launched Razr Fold and the upcoming next-generation Razr Flip. 

In India, Singh says two-thirds of foldable smartphone shipments this year will come from book-style foldables, which offer larger displays and a stronger productivity experience. However, with memory prices rising, higher production volumes alone are unlikely to bring down prices this year. 

In contrast, the global foldable smartphone market is expected to post stronger growth, with shipments seen rising 30 per cent year-on-year. According to Smart Analytics Global, Apple is expected to capture 25 per cent of the global foldable smartphone market by the end of the year. 

The next fold

 

·         Foldable smartphone shipments to grow 8% in CY 2026 even as overall smartphone market shrinks 13-14%

 

·         At around $1,800, foldables cost 5x the average smartphone in India

 

·         Apple’s foldable iPhone expected to capture less than 1% of the segment in CY 2026 because of its late launch