RBI says fall in crude oil prices augurs well for inflation outlook, projects CPI inflation at 4% for FY26

The Reserve Bank of India or RBI has stated today in its monetary policy update that inflation is currently below the target, supported by a sharp fall in food inflation. Moreover, there is a decisive improvement in the inflation outlook. As per projections, there is now a greater confidence of a durable alignment of headline inflation with the target of 4 per cent over a 12-month horizon. On the other hand, impeded by a challenging global environment, growth is still on a recovery path after an underwhelming performance in the first half of 2024-25.

While the risks are evenly balanced around the baseline projections of growth, uncertainties remain high in the wake of the recent spurt in global volatility. In such challenging global economic conditions, the benign inflation and moderate growth outlook demands that the MPC continues to support growth. Furthermore, the fall in crude oil prices augurs well for the inflation outlook. Concerns on lingering global market uncertainties and recurrence of adverse weather-related supply disruptions pose upside risks to the inflation trajectory. Taking all these factors into consideration, and assuming a normal monsoon, CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4.0 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent; Q2 at 3.9 per cent; Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.

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