Cipla shares at ₹1,800 or ₹1,465? Analysts divided on pharma stock post Q4

Cipla share price today: Cipla shares today declined 2.9 per cent intraday to hit a low of ₹1,474.1 per share

Cipla share price today: Shares of pharmaceutical company, Cipla, were falling in trade on Wednesday, May 14, 2025, as most brokerages shared cautious outlook on the company after it announced its March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25) results.

 

Cipla shares today declined 2.9 per cent intraday to hit a low of ₹1,474.1 per share. The shares were off lows and quoted around 1.5 per cent lower at 11:35 AM. By comparison, the BSE Sensex index was up 0.4 per cent.  Follow Stock Market LIVE Updates Today 

 

Cipla Q4 results 2025

Cipla's net profit in Q4FY25 grew 30 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹1,221 crore, while it reported revenue growth of 9 per cent to ₹6,729 crore.

 

The company's India sales, which account for 39 per cent of total sales, increased 8.5 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY25 to around ₹3,150 crore. Emerging market (EM) sales, accounting for 15 per cent of total sales, grew 22 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹900 crore.

 

Further, SAGA sales, also accounting for 15 per cent of total sales, were up 33.9 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY25 to ₹1,020 crore. The US sales, which contribute 29 per cent to total sales, increased by 2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹1,900 crore ($221 million, down 2 per cent in constant currency terms). However, API sales (2 per cent of sales) declined 3.7 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹180 crore.

 

Cipla's gross margin expanded 70 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y to 67.5 per cent, while Ebitda margin expanded 150bps Y-o-Y to 22.8 per cent, due to better segmental mix and lower R&D expense (down 90bp Y-o-Y as a percentage of sales).

 

In FY25, Cipla reported an increase in revenue, Ebitda, and PAT by 7 per cent, 13.3 per cent, and 20 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively, to ₹27500 crore, ₹7100 crore, and ₹5,050 crore.  ALSO READ | Bharti Airtel shares gain 3% after posting Q4 results; Check out detail

 

Cipla FY26 guidance

Cipla management guided for an Ebitda margin of 23.5 per cent-24.5 per cent for FY26. It said that US sales run rate is expected to be $220 million in Q1FY26.

 

The company said it plans to launch three peptide assets in FY26. Cipla has filed six assets to date in the respiratory space and four more will be filed in the next 12-18 months. It has filed nine peptide assets to date and intends to file 10 more in the next 12-24 months.

 

Cipla updated that g-Abraxane/g-Nilotinib drug will be launched soon. It also shared that the Furacort brand in India has surpassed ₹900 crore in annual sales.

 

Cipla share price analysis: What brokerages say

 

Elara Capital downgrades Cipla shares

Cipla management has guided for "continued growth trajectory" in revenue in FY26. The brokerage thinks this would imply a flat-to-low single-digit percentage growth. Moreover, Ebitda margin guidance for FY26, at 23.5-24.5 per cent, translates to 140-240bps Y-o-Y contraction.

 

Factoring in the full loss of gRevlimid to get reflected in FY27, the brokerage expects Cipla’s Ebitda margin to contract by 300bps that year.  ALSO READ | Garden Reach Shipbuilders share zooms 18% as Q4 profit more than doubles

 

"We lower our FY26E and FY27E core EPS estimates by 8 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. Cipla share price trades at 26.9x FY26E and 30.5x FY27E core P/E. We lower our share price target from ₹1,572 to ₹1,465, which is 28.5x FY27E core P/E plus cash per share. We downgrade Cipla stock to 'Reduce' from 'Accumulate'," it said.

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains 'Neutral', cuts target price

Cipla's earnings grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26 per cent over FY20-25. However, the brokerage, now, expects earnings to witness a modest 2 per cent CAGR over FY25-27.

 

While Cipla continues to implement strategies to offset the competitive impact of g-Revlimid and to expand its presence in the North American segment, MOFSL anticipates a gestation period due to the progress of products in the pipeline.

 

"Valuation would be a key monitorable for any inorganic opportunities. Moreover, the current valuation provides limited upside," it said with a lower target price of ₹1,510.

 

The brokerage has reduced earnings estimates by 3 per cent and 4 per cent for FY26 and FY27, respectively, factoring in increased competition expected in g-Revlimid, and continued seasonal headwinds in acute therapies in the domestic formulation segment.

 

Emkay Global maintains 'Reduce' rating on Cipla stock

According to the brokerage, the management's commentary underscores the brokerage’s stance that Cipla's US sales and overall margin performance in FY26/27 may disappoint street expectations.

 

The FY26 margin guidance (23.5-24.5 per cent; likely to be closer to the lower end of the range, in their view), muted near-term US sales outlook (US sales likely to remain flat at best over FY25-27), and lack of incremental clarity around the timelines for the launch of key inhalation assets in the pipeline are the key negatives.  ALSO READ | Defence stock surges 26% in 1 wk, zooms 100% from March low; hits new high

 

"While consensus earnings downgrades should follow, we note that our FY27 estimates, already lower than the street, represent a best-case scenario and could see further cuts if key US launches are delayed or double-digit domestic growth does not materialize. We cut our FY26/27E EPS estimates by 2 per cent/4 per cent. We retain our ‘Reduce’ rating with a share price target of ₹1,500," it said.

 

Cipla stock: A contra buy pharma stock?

As per analysts at Antique Stock Broking, Cipla has filed for approval for gAdvair drug from a US site, which may benefit from the USFDA’s prioritisation of domestic filings. That apart, the company has filed six respiratory assets, including gSymbicort and gQVAR, with four more filings planned over the next 12–18 months. The management also expects to launch gSymbicort in FY27E.

 

The Nilotinib NDA approval adds another differentiated product to the portfolio, with launch expected imminently. Meanwhile, gLanreotide supply has normalised, and production is back to peak levels, with market share recovery expected over the next few quarters.

 

"These developments significantly enhance visibility on US growth and support a structural re-rating. Driven by limited competition launches, we expect Cipla’s core US generic revenue (normalised gRevlimid revenues in FY27) to see meaningful growth in FY27,” Antique Broking said.

 

The brokerage has upgraded Cipla stock to 'Buy' from 'Reduce' as it believes the company is entering a phase of structural growth in the US generics market, underpinned by sustained investments in complex generics, respiratory, and peptide assets. It has revised its share price target to ₹1,760 (from ₹1,204), valuing Cipla at 27x FY27E EPS (vs 24x earlier).

 

Those at Kotak Institutional Equities, meanwhile, have a 'Buy' rating and a target price of ₹1,800 on Cipla's sharpened focus on domestic Rx, US generics, and strong delivery of cost efficiencies.