HDFC Bank Q3 results preview: Profit may post muted growth; NIMs stable
HDFC Bank Q3FY26 results preview: Analysts see gradual earnings recovery with stable margins, improving loan growth and pressure on deposits. Check brokerage estimates
 "HDFC Bank Q3 results preview: Profit may post muted growth; NIMs stable")
HDFC Bank Q3 results preview: Banking sector giant HDFC Bank is set to report its December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26) results on Saturday, January 17, 2026. Analysts expect the December quarter to mark a transitional phase for HDFC Bank, with improving loan growth and stabilising margins, offset by continued pressure on deposit mobilisation and muted treasury gains.
Analysts pointed out that though Q3FY26 numbers may not look optically strong, the quarter may reinforce that earnings are past the trough, with the setup improving into Q4FY26 and FY27 on the back of stabilising margins and sustained credit growth.
HDFC Bank Q3 results expectations: Street Consensus
According to broader Street estimates, HDFC Bank’s Q3FY26 earnings are expected to mark a gradual recovery, with improving loan growth and stabilising margins partially offset by liability-side pressures. On average, brokerages see net interest income (NII) growth in the range of 4-7per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), while net profit growth is expected in the range of 5-11 per cent on year.
Margins are likely to remain flat to marginally lower sequentially, with analysts focusing on management commentary around deposit mobilisation, CASA trends, and margin outlook for FY27. ALSO READ | Q3FY26 bank earnings to improve, but NIM concerns loom: Elara Securities
HDFC Bank Q3FY26 results expectations:
Nomura
Nomura expects HDFC Bank’s NII to rise about 7 per cent year-on-year in the December quarter, supported by stronger loan momentum and balance sheet repricing benefits. However, profit growth is likely to remain modest sequentially, reflecting subdued treasury income and continued pressure on deposits.
It pegs NII at ₹32,900 crore, up 7 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹30,650 crore and 4 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹31,550 crore.
Similarly, net profit growth is pegged at 7 per cent Y-o-Y at ₹17,960 crore, compared to ₹16,740-crore profit in Q3FY25. On a sequential basis, though, the profit is seen declining by 4 per cent from ₹18,640 crore.
The brokerage expects net interest margins to stabilise in Q3FY26, with a 5-basis point margin expansion likely this quarter. Loan and deposit growth are estimated at around 12 per cent year-on-year each.
"Reported loan growth has been healthy, but a pick-up in deposit growth is key to drive loan growth going ahead (as loan-to-deposit ratio is at ~99 per cent). We expect credit cost to inch-up due to seasonal agri-related slippages but expect it to remain contained at 0.6 per cent," the brokerage said.
BNP Paribas
Analysts at BNP Paribas expect steady earnings growth for HDFC Bank in Q3FY26, led by consistent credit growth and stable asset quality. NII is expected to grow by 4.9 per cent Y-o-Y/1.9 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹32,155.3 crore, while margins are likely to remain steady at 3.5 per cent amid competitive deposit pricing.
The brokerage estimates loan growth at 11.8 per cent year-on-year, driven by retail and commercial banking segments. Deposit growth, meanwhile, is seen at 11.5 per cent.
In terms of profitability, pre-provision profits (PPoP) are seen rising 8.1 per cent Y-o-Y, but falling 3.2 per cent Q-o-Q, to ₹27,026.4 crore. Net profit is expected to rise 5 per cent Y-o-Y, but dip 5.8 per cent sequentially, to ₹17,565 crore. ALSO READ | RIL Q3FY26 results preview: O2C, Jio seen driving earnings growth
Systematix Institutional Equities
At the consolidated level, analysts at Systematix expect HDFC Bank’s net interest income (NII) to grow around 6.4 per cent year-on-year in Q3FY26, driven by improving loan growth and gradual easing in funding costs. They peg NII at ₹32,606.8 crore, up 3.3 per cent Q-o-Q.
Net interest margins (NIMs) are expected to expand marginally on a sequential basis as the fall in yield on assets (YoA) could be completely off set by the fall in cost of deposits (CoD).
Systematix estimates loan growth at around 12 per cent year-on-year, led by retail and SME segments, while deposit growth is seen lagging advances at 11.5 per cent, keeping the credit-deposit ratio elevated. Asset quality is expected to remain stable, though seasonal agri slippages could lead to a marginal uptick in gross NPAs.
"Fee income is expected to be stable sequentially, but other income may be lower due to higher recoveries in Q2FY26. Opex will be controlled, along with lower provisions Q-o-Q," it said.
Overall, the brokerage pegs profit after tax (PAT) growth at 11.2 per cent year-on-year, at ₹18,604.3 crore, aided by benign credit costs and stable operating expenses.
ICICI Securities
Analysts at ICICI Securities peg NII growth at a modest 4.4 per cent Y-o-Y and 1.4 per cent Q-o-Q at ₹31,989.7 crore; PPoP growth at 7.6 per cent Y-o-Y (down 3.6 per cent Q-o-Q) at ₹26,909.5 crore; and PAT at 6.5 per cent Y-o-Y (down 4.4 per cent Q-o-Q) at ₹17,825.2 crore.
The brokerage sees NIM at 3.39 per cent, down 1bps Q-o-Q and 23bps Y-o-Y. Slippages are seen rising roughly 19 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹8,800 crore from ₹7,400 crore in Q2FY26.
Key monitorables
- Deposit growth and CASA trajectory
- Sustainability of loan growth momentum
- Margin outlook post deposit repricing
- Asset quality trends in unsecured and agri portfolios