RIL Q3FY26 results preview: O2C, Jio seen driving earnings growth

RIL Q3FY26 results preview: Brokerages expect ~10 per cent Y-o-Y Ebitda growth led by O2C and Jio, partly offset by Retail. Check earnings estimates, segment-wise outlook and key monitorables

RIL Q3 results preview: Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries could report around 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in its consolidated operating income, when the company reports its December 2025 quarter (Q3FY26) results, brokerages estimate.

 

This, they said, would be driven by healthy growth in the oil to chemical (O2C) and telecom businesses during Q3FY26.

RIL Q3 results date and time

According to RIL's stock exchange filing, the Board of Directors of the company is scheduled to meet on Friday,January 16, 2026, to consider and approve the standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results of the company for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2025.

 

RIL Q3 FY26 results expectations:

Kotak Institutional Equities

At the consolidated level, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities expect RIL to post an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) of ₹47,867.3 crore, up 9.3 per cent Y-o-Y and 4.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) in the December quarter.

 

Net sales, too, is seen rising 10.6 per cent on year and 4.3 per cent over the previous quarter at ₹2,65,523 crore.

 

Segment-wise, the brokerage estimates O2C Ebitda to rise 10 per cent Q-o-Q and 15 per cent Y-o-Y on better refining and weaker rupee, partly offset by weak petchem.

 

For Reliance Jio (R-Jio), the brokerage pegs Ebitda growth at 3 per cent Q-o-Q and 15 per cent Y-o-Y, with blended Arpu (average revenue per user) of ₹214 (up 1.3 per cent sequentially).

 

Reliance Retail, meanwhile, is seen clocking a moderate Ebitda growth of 6 per cent Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q each.

 

"We expect retail revenue growth to moderate to ~9.6 per cent Y-o-Y (from 18 per cent Y-o-Y in Q2FY26) on account of festive season split over this year, and demerger of RCPL. We also assume Ebitda margins to moderate this quarter to 7.1 per cent from 7.4 per cent in Q2FY26," the brokerage said.

 

Overall, analysts peg RIL's reported consolidated net profit at ₹22,677.6 crore, recording an increase of 4 per cent on year and 2.4 per cent sequentially.

 

On a standalone basis, RIL's net sales are seen at ₹1,19,015.4 (down 4.3 per cent Y-o-Y/5.8 per cent Q-o-Q); Ebitda at ₹16,086.5 crore (up 5.7 per cent Y-o-Y/11.8 per cent Q-o-Q); and reported net profit at ₹10,006.5 crore (up 14.7 per cent Y-o-Y/9.6 per cent Q-o-Q).  ALSO READ | Wipro Q3 preview: Revenue may rise 3% QoQ on Phoenix ramp-up, Harman deal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

MOFSL, too, sees RIL's consolidated Ebitda rising 9 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹47,900 crore in Q3FY26.

 

It pegs net sales at ₹2,55,900 crore -- a growth of 6.6 per cent Y-o-Y. Besides, consolidated net profit is seen at ₹18,800 crore, up 1.3 per cent on year.

 

Motilal Oswal said further clarity on announcements in the new energy business, growth in Retail store additions, and any pricing action in Telecom would be the key monitorables from the management's commentary.

Emkay Global Financial Services

In their results expectations report, analysts at Emkay Global said RIL's O2C segment Ebitda may witness an increase of 11 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹16,600 crore, supported by better gross refining margins (GRMs). In the telecom business, Jio may see net subscriber addition of 5.5 million during the quarter, with 1 per cent higher Arpu at ₹214.

 

Further, Retail segment Ebitda is expected to increase by 3 per cent Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q at ₹7000 crore, with an 8 per cent revenue growth. On the flipside, upstream Ebitda could decline 4 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹4,800 crore, with gas production down 2 per cent Q-o-Q.

 

Factoring this, Emkay forecasts RIL's consolidated Ebitda at ₹48,017.7 crore, up 9.7 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹43,789 crore seen in Q3FY26. On a Q-o-Q basis, it would be an increase of 0.6 per cent over ₹45,885 crore Ebitda of Q2FY26.

 

The brokerage estimates consolidated adjusted net profit (after minority interest) to increase 1 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹18,600 crore, with increase in interest and D/A.  ALSO READ | Tech Mahindra's Q3 profit may rise 27% YoY; margins to improve: Analysts

JM Financial Institutional Equities

Analysts at JM Financial forecast RIL's consolidated Q3 net sales at ₹ 2,56,153.8 crore (up 6.7 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹2,39,986 crore in Q3FY25; and 0.6 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹2,54,623 crore in Q2FY26).

 

Further, it estimates consolidated Ebitda at ₹47,168 crore (up 7.7 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.8 per cent Q-o-Q), with Ebitda margin seen at 18.4 per cent (compared to 18.2 per cent in Q3FY25 and 18 per cent in Q2FY26).

 

Adjusted net profit, meanwhile, is seen at ₹18,605 crore, up 0.4 per cent Y-o-Y from ₹18,540-crore PAT of Q3FY25, and 2.4 per cent Q-o-Q from ₹18,165-crore PAT of Q2FY26.

 

The brokerage said Retail segment gross revenue could grow 9 per cent Y-o-Y in Q3FY26 due to ~2 per cent impact on account of RCPL demerger; around 2 per cent impact on account of full quarter impact of reduced retail selling prices of its products post GST rate cut; festive season being split between Q and Q3 vs being in Q2FY25 last year; and benefit of consumption boost due to GST cut restricted only to electronics segment. Further, Retail segment Ebitda, it said, is likely to be soft at only 3.8 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹7,100 crore as ramp-up in quick commerce is likely to impact Ebitda margin

 

"In the Digital segment, Ebitda is expected to grow 2.6 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹19,400 crore, led by 8.4 million subscriber gains (including home broadband and M2M subs) and 0.4 per cent Q-o-Q rise in Arpu to ₹212.4 (aided by continued upgrades). O2C Ebitda is likely to be up 8.5 per cent Q-o-Q at ₹16,300 crore led by higher GRM at ~$11/barrel. Besides, E&P Ebitda could decline 3 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹4850 crore on natural decline in KG D6 gas output," JM Financial said.