Nifty rose in 10 out of 12 Apr F&O series; needs 5% rally to extend record

Historical data shows that the Nifty has ended higher in most of the April F&O series in the last 12 years; the average gain for the NSE benchmark has been over 3 per cent.

The April 2025 futures & options (F&O) series will be one of the shortest in terms of number of trading days, owing to numerous trading holidays. Yesterday, April 10 (Thursday) was a stock market holiday on account of Shri Mahavir Jayanti holiday. This shall be followed by 2 more trading holidays in the following week on April 14 and April 18 owing to Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and Good Friday.  Earlier in the April series, markets were closed for trading on March 31 on account of Eid-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). Thus with 4 trading holidays, the April F&O series will be having only 16 trading sessions. In the history of derivatives trading, there have been only 2 other instances of 16 trading sessions - April 2014 and April 2009. Overall, on an average the April series has recorded lesser trading sessions of around 18-19 as against the average of around 20-21 days in the rest of the calendar months.  Apart from being among the shorter F&O series, here's an interesting market trend (Nifty) observed in the month of April in the last 12 years.  ALSO READ | 65 days and counting! Nifty spends longest time below 200-DMA post Covid-19  The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 index has ended higher in the last 10 out of 12 April F&O series. Historical data shows that the Nifty on an average has rallied 3.5 per cent in the last 10 winning April months. The least gain was recorded in the month of April 2019 at 0.2 per cent, while the highest was registered in the very next year April 2020 - wherein the Nifty surged 13.9 per cent as the market bounced back from the Covid-19 triggered crash.  If the unusual price movement in April 2020 were to be excluded, still the average gains in 9 other winning months of April stand at a healthy 2.4 per cent. In the only two other 16-day F&O series thus far, the Nifty logged a 2.2 per cent gain in April 2014, and a sharp 10.1 per cent surge in April 2009.  In the only two negative April months in the last 12 years, the Nifty was down 2.4 per cent in April 2022, and slipped 1.9 per cent in April 2015. Thus, data reveals that the broader market mood in April has been largely positive. 

Here's what the current April F&O data suggests:

  As of Wednesday's (April 9) close, the Nifty has declined 4.8 per cent thus far in the current F&O series amid the global market volatility. The Nifty will need to surpass and close above 23,519 in the next 8 trading sessions in order to mirror the broader winning trend in April, shorter-expiries.  Given the recent market volatility, and sharp swings a 5 per cent or more upside from present levels cannot be ruled out. In pre-market trades, GIFT Nifty futures were seen quoting around 22,935 levels - indicating a likely gap-up open of around 450 points on the NSE Nifty 50 index.  ALSO READ | Realty stocks down up to 50% this year; time to buy or wait?  "Until the Nifty decisively surpasses the 22,800 mark, upside traction remains limited. The 22,300 – 22,200 belt has now turned into a dependable support base, bolstered by strong put writing activity", said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities in a note,  The resistance zone of 22,700 – 22,800 continues to weigh heavily due to aggressive Call open interest (OI) and historical supply pressure. A breakout beyond 22,800 will be critical for the bulls to take command, the analyst added.  The Nifty April Put Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.07 - implying presence of higher open Put options versus Calls. Notable Put writing is visible at 22,500 and 22,000 Strikes, which may act as key support for the index this month. On the upside, significant Call writing is visible at 23,500 Strike.  Data shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) long-short ratio in index futures stands at 0.28 - implying presence of more than 3 short positions for every long bet. On similar lines, proprietary traders are also seen holding more than 1 short bet for every long position.  ALSO READ | Stock Market LIVE Updates: GIFT Nifty signals higher open for India on tariff pause; Nikkei drags 5%  On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are holding nearly 4 open bullish bets in index futures for every short trade. Retail investors are seen holding 3 long positions for every 2 short bets.