From Dhaka to Colombo, Gen Z has started raging at rotten governance

Each revolt in our neighbourhood was driven by corruption, with lessons for India

In the recent Sardar Patel Memorial lecture, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval correctly identified governance as a key factor in the toppling of governments in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. GenZ led revolts have now knocked down corrupt and tone-deaf regimes across India’s neighbourhood and are spreading further afield. The latest is Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, where protesters claim they were inspired by uprisings in Nepal and Sri Lanka. Similar, Gen Z protests in Indonesia, the Philippines, Kenya, and Morocco have also forced governments to reverse policies. A common symbol — a grinning skull and crossbones wearing a straw hat — is becoming the leitmotif of these revolts, inspired by a Japanese manga and anime series called One Piece, in which a crew of pirates takes on corrupt governments. 

The immediate trigger for each revolt is slightly different. In Bangladesh, it was a decision to bring back a government job quota system; in Nepal, a social media ban; in Indonesia, higher salaries for parliament; and in Madagascar, electricity and water shortages. But the broader reasons for the revolts are the same, whatever the initial trigger may be. The young are revolting because of a lack of opportunities and poor services, but a common cause across all these uprisings is anti-corruption. Social media has made the young aware of how ineffective and corrupt elitist governments are ruining their lives and mortgaging their future. 

Transparency International (TI) publishes a Corruption Perception Index every year. The index is based on business perceptions of the extent of corruption in 180 countries, ranked on a scale of 0 to 100 — where a higher score means less corruption. According to the TI scores, Bangladesh has an extremely high level of corruption (ranked 150th), as does Madagascar (ranked 140th) and Sri Lanka (ranked 121st) — all of which have seen an increase in corruption (see table). Nepal is also a highly corrupt country (ranked 107th) but has not seen a significant increase over the last decade, according to TI. However, Nepal has exceedingly high levels of recorded youth unemployment at 20.8 per cent — just a bit lower than Sri Lanka, where recorded youth unemployment stands at 22.5 per cent. The actual unemployment may be much higher. 

The protests have now spread to Latin America in Peru (rank 127th), where corruption has risen hugely in recent years. Countries with extremely high levels of corruption that are vulnerable are Mexico (rank 140th) and Pakistan (rank 135th). Across Asia, we see substantial improvements in anti-corruption efforts in China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, but not much success in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The country that has shown the most improvement in its corruption Index is Vietnam (rank 88th), and, as a result, it is also doing very well economically. The trial of the richest Vietnamese woman Truong My Lan, convicted of financial fraud, showed that Vietnam was serious about tackling corruption. 

It is hard to predict where the next revolt will be but expect more Gen Z revolts around the world as geoeconomic fragmentation and uncertainty rise. What are the lessons for India? 

India (rank 96th) showed improvements in its TI corruption score initially during the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s first term, but those improvements have been subsequently eradicated, and India’s TI corruption score is back to where it was in 2014. These scores are based on perceptions of businesses. What about citizens? What is the level of corruption they face in their day-to-day lives when dealing with government agencies, paying bills, obtaining a driver’s licence, or completing legal and real estate transactions? Anecdotal evidence tells us that Indian citizens face huge levels of corruption — despite the digitisation of bill payments and tax filing. Anyone you meet will have a horrific story about bribery — especially when dealing with the courts or the police. 

We need not rely on anecdotes alone. Transparency International’s 2020 Global Corruption Barometer surveyed citizens about their interactions with government officials and whether they had to pay a bribe. The survey found that among citizens who had contact with a government official, Indians reported the highest incidence of bribery (39 per cent) — higher than in any other country, including Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Bribery and corruption are now an accepted part of life in India. Even with digitisation, officials have found ways to extract bribes, one way or another.  At the highest levels, the electoral bond scheme provides huge opportunities for large-scale political funding without transparency. But what really counts — and hurts a citizen’s daily life — is everyday corruption: Dealing with the police, navigating the courts, obtaining government licences, or completing property transactions — the so-called petty corruption. 

This does not mean that India will necessarily see a Gen Z revolt like we have seen in our neighbourhood. The country’s enormous size and stronger institutions act as a buffer, but pockets of huge vulnerability do exist. A safety valve is migration, with large numbers of youth leaving poll-bound Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha for work in other parts of the country. But this too is creating tensions in the receiving states, some of which have now instituted quotas for their own citizens — even though they benefit from in-migration. Nevertheless, the revolts in our neighbourhood should serve as a warning that India must address not only youth unemployment but also the deeper, more pervasive cancer of corruption that runs through the system and acts as a heavy tax on its citizens. 

 

The author is a distinguished visiting scholar at the Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University. His book Unshackling India (HarperCollins India) was declared the best new book in economics by the Financial Times in 2022