To SIR, with reservations: The TDP-BJP test in the monsoon session

When the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) last week approached the Election Commission of India (ECI) to register its reservations over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, thus adding its voice to the Opposition, many said relations between the TDP and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had begun to unravel and it was just a matter of time before the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would come unstuck. The TDP’s 16 members of Parliament are crucial for the NDA government, given that at 293 the alliance is just 21 seats more than the majority mark of 272.

 

While that could be a hasty deduction, this much is true. Over the role and powers of the ECI in revising electoral rolls, there is striking similarity between the arguments forwarded by the TDP and those of the Opposition. The TDP says it is not the ECI’s job to decide citizenship and revision must be limited to electoral roll “re-correction and inclusion”. Seeking proof of citizenship was not warranted, either, “unless specific and verifiable reasons are recorded”.

 

This is not the first time electoral-roll revision has become a political issue in Andhra Pradesh. In 2018-19, then Opposition leader Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress charged that nearly six million “fake” voters had been added to the electoral rolls by then ruling TDP, designed to skew the results in its favour.

 

This resulted in a High Court direction to the ECI to audit the rolls, which happened subsequently. Mr Reddy won a landslide victory: Whether because of the charges he made or despite them we will never know.

 

The loss led to internal course correction in the TDP. Andhra Pradesh has a 10 per cent Muslim population, which can significantly affect prospects in specific constituencies in Guntur, Krishna, Nellore districts, and Rayalaseema. The TDP had walked out of the NDA in 2018 on the issue of denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh. But when it returned to the alliance before the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections (held simultaneously), it was acutely conscious of the sensitivities of Muslim voters. In the course of the election campaign, Chandrababu Naidu sought to reassure the Muslims their interests would not be hurt by the alliance. He promised many new initiatives for the community if the coalition came to power, including a Haj subsidy, ₹5,000 every month for mosque maintenance, and the Dulhan scheme, which promised ₹1 lakh to Muslim brides. He also vowed retention of the 4 per cent reservation for the Muslims (carved out of the quota for Other Backward Classes, or OBCs). Not in Andhra Pradesh but in neighbouring Telangana, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a speech: “As long as Modi is alive, I will not let reservations of Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs to be given to Muslims on the basis of religion.”

 

Now, with an alliance with the BJP that has yielded two Union ministerships, the TDP is treading softly but assertively. The possible disenfranchisement of voters is a live issue. Unlike Bihar or West Bengal, there are few illegal immigrants in Andhra Pradesh although bureaucrats concede the documentary evidence of citizenship like birth certificates is a “data nightmare”.

 

The BJP too is being careful. Despite its best efforts, its vote share in the state has never crossed 3 per cent. The appointment of P V N Madhav earlier this week as state BJP president, replacing D Purandeswari, was a strategic choice. Mr Purandeswari had done just two years as BJP state chief but many thought she was constricted by family and caste connections. Mr Madhav, by contrast, is an OBC of Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) stock and has been with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh  throughout his political career. His task is to grow the party in the state without alienating the TDP so that the BJP has a respectable presence in the state by 2029.

 

The BJP has demonstrated in a variety of ways that its alliance is still stable. Ashok Gajapathi Raju was named governor of Goa after the TDP met the ECI. Mr Raju has been a staunch and trusted TDP supporter who has held important portfolios in the state government between 1999 and 2004. The ₹15,000 crore allocation in 2025-26 Budget to develop Amaravati, with the promise of more to come, renders the debate over “special category state” politically irrelevant.

 

The real test will be the upcoming monsoon session of Parliament and a discussion on SIR. Will the TDP say what it believes? And how will the BJP react to that? If a discussion ever happens, we will know the real state of relations between the allies.