Clear message on Pahalgam terror attack: All options on the table

The message from the Government of India could not have been clearer. Speaking in public for the first time since the gruesome terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which resulted in the death of 26 persons, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said: “India will identify, trace, and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.” The fact that Mr Modi chose to speak in English at a public function in Madhubani, Bihar, suggests that he wanted the message to reach across the world uninterrupted. He also mentioned various countries and leaders who had stood with India. This and the global leaders’ reaction to the attack show India has overwhelming diplomatic support. The Union government also held an all-party meeting on Thursday. This reflects the fact that the country stands united. 

Given that the attack had cross-border linkages and that it is well known that Pakistan nurtures and finances terrorist groups, the government on Wednesday took several measures such as halting trade, expelling officials from Pakistan’s High Commission, and cancelling the visas of Pakistani nationals under the Saarc Visa Exemption Scheme. However, the most important step is to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. It is important to note that the treaty, signed in 1960, was not suspended even during the India-Pakistan wars of 1965 and 1971, and the Kargil conflict in 1999. This is significant because a large part of Pakistan depends on the Indus river system. Things such as agriculture to power generation in Pakistan can be severely hit. According to estimates, about 25 per cent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) depends on the Indus system. On Thursday, Pakistan rejected the announcement and said attempts to stop or divert the flow of water would be seen as an act of war. Pakistan on its part has put the Simla Agreement in abeyance.

  Although India may not immediately stop the flow of water, the announcement underscores that nothing is off the table. India is in a position to significantly damage the Pakistani economy, which, anyway, is in the doldrums. Its GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, in nominal dollar terms in 2024 was lower than in 2022. Per capita GDP in nominal dollars in 2024 was roughly the same as in 2015. Pakistan has been on IMF support for several years. In terms of diplomacy, with consistent efforts over the years, India has been able to successfully isolate Pakistan. With the United States (US) leaving Afghanistan, Pakistan lost whatever leverage it had with the country or the Western world at large. It has also been sidelined in West Asia. The difficulties in the ongoing Chinese projects in Pakistan could soon test their “all-weather friendship”.

  Nonetheless, India must aim to put as much diplomatic pressure on Pakistan through friends across the globe and force it to stop supporting terrorism. It is unfortunate that the Pakistan establishment, particularly the military, still fails to understand that it will achieve nothing by supporting terrorism. On the contrary, acts like these will make survival increasingly difficult for Pakistan. While the government is taking diplomatic steps and all efforts are being made to hunt down the terrorists, it must also review the security and intelligence apparatus to plug gaps, if any. The Pahalgam attack was essentially an attack on the economic prospects and return of normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir. It is thus important to restore confidence, not only in the Valley but across the country, which had been steadily building over the past few years.