Message from Bishkek

In the age of Donald Trump, the key takeaway from the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting is the willingness of its 10 member-states to accommodate competing interests and present a united front against the United States’ (US’) hegemony. This was true for India, which balanced its core diplomatic objectives within the framework of the joint statement that emerged at the 26th summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Political adjustments in the joint statement were evident in the commitment to “fight terrorism, separatism and extremism” — reflecting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks describing terrorism as a grave challenge to humanity and urging members to steer clear of “double standards” on the issue. Mr Modi’s comments were unambiguously aimed at Pakistan’s cross-border attacks, but Islamabad signed the joint statement (claiming that it too had been a victim of terrorism). The joint statement also reiterated the grouping’s stated position condemning the US-Israel military strikes and sanctions on Iran (an SCO member) and attacks on Palestinians. Given that India is an Israeli ally and has refrained from overtly criticising the US, with trade talks delicately poised, the willingness to endorse this strongly-worded joint condemnation is significant.

 

All told, Iran and China could be considered the obvious gainers from the Bishkek summit. Iran not only secured the grouping’s unequivocal support against US-Israeli attacks but also for its rights as a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme.  If the summit underlined a critical international message, it was the emergence of China and President Xi Jinping in particular as a powerful competing sphere of influence. China’s significant role in sustaining Russia and Iran in their conflicts against Ukraine and US-Israel, respectively, has already immeasurably strengthened its position as a credible emerging hegemon. In Bishkek, it was also clear that China had decisively replaced Russia as the dominant power in the resource-rich Central Asian “Stans”, which have been the focus of the land component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. These projects via the Trans-Caspian route have gained considerable traction as a source of critical minerals and energy supplies. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive push for trade de-dollarisation, pointing out that the bulk of Moscow’s transactions with SCO partners were in local currency, has added heft to China’s efforts to develop an alternative yuan-based international settlement.

 

India’s key economic takeaways were the projection of the putative India-Middle East Economic Corridor and the International North-South Transport Corridor, connecting, India, Iran, Russia and Central Asia with Europe, as supply-chain routes that are alternatives to the stalled Strait of Hormuz. Bilateral deals have also helped secure critical minerals and energy supplies. The nuanced positions India adopted in Bishkek offer a kind of dress rehearsal for the 18th Brics summit, which India will host in New Delhi later this month. A visibly cordial handshake — though no meeting — with Mr Xi on the sidelines of the summit offered signs of a genuine thaw ahead of the Chinese leader’s visit. Given the open derision and threats expressed by Mr Trump against both the SCO and Brics, the outcome of the latter meeting will acquire added importance in light of the visible closing of ranks in Bishkek.