AI agents set to cash in big in China as UBS predicts 2026 as key year

Global brokerage UBS expects Chinese AI agents could start making money in 2026 as models get smarter; tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba and ByteDance are racing to build new AI tools

Artificial intelligence is moving fast. And in China, it could soon start paying off in a big way. Analysts at UBS believe that Chinese companies may begin making money from AI-powered ‘agents’ as early as next year, according to a report by South China Morning Post. 

The report quoted Sundeep Gantori, equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management CIO, observing that the year 2026 will be the year of agent monetisation in China.  He explained that as models like DeepSeek’s R2 become smarter, “We expect to see more monetisation.”

 

What are AI agents?

AI agents are advanced systems that can independently plan and perform complicated tasks for users. Experts see them as the next big step after generative AI tools like ChatGPT, the news report said. Tech giants such as Google and OpenAI are already in fierce competition to lead this space. 

On Wednesday, German translation start-up DeepL launched its own AI agent designed to handle “repetitive, time-intensive tasks across a wide variety of functions”.   

  US vs China: Different markets

The US presently leads the AI agent market, generating $15 billion to $20 billion a year in revenue, according to UBS. This is because American businesses are used to paying for sophisticated software and advanced AI tools, Gantori said. 

In China, the picture is different. Businesses are less familiar with paying subscription fees for enterprise software. Instead, AI agents in China have been used more for consumer purposes like shopping and entertainment. 

Chinese companies are racing to catch up. Tencent, Alibaba and ByteDance are all building what are known as “agentic frameworks” – the toolkits required to create AI agents.

 

• Tencent released its Youtu-Agent framework this week

• ByteDance shared its own framework in July

• Alibaba followed earlier in March

 

Although US-built frameworks are still the most widely used, Chinese offerings are quickly gaining ground. According to an IBM ranking, ByteDance’s Coze Studio and Alibaba’s Qwen-Agent have already received more than 10,000 stars on GitHub, showing rising popularity, the news report said.   

 

The wealth boom from AI

Gantori pointed out that the rise of AI has sparked enormous wealth creation. In just two years since ChatGPT’s launch, Nasdaq’s market capitalisation has nearly doubled. 

AI adoption in the US is currently at 9 per cent and will soon cross 10 per cent, he added. “Very soon we will see double-digit penetration rates both in the US and China.” 

UBS expects companies worldwide to spend around $375 billion on long-term AI investments in 2025. China’s share will likely be close to 15 per cent, “thanks to the success of DeepSeek and also the aggressive spending from the leading companies”, said Gantori, as quoted by South China Morning Post.