AI to boost trade by nearly 40% by 2040 if gaps are bridged: WTO report

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said artificial intelligence has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity

Artificial intelligence (AI) could boost the value of cross-border trade by nearly 40 per cent by 2040 on the back of productivity gains and lower trade costs, said the 2025 edition of the World Trade Report released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday.

 

However, for AI and trade to contribute to inclusive growth, policies need to be in place to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment, the report added.

 

"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

Global trade likely to rise 34-37%

According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2040, with global trade projected to rise by 34-37 per cent across different scenarios based on different degrees of policy and technology between low-, middle- and high-income economies.

 

Meanwhile, global GDP could see a 12-13 per cent increase across different scenarios. Trade can be a powerful enabler of inclusive AI-supported growth by helping economies access AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs. The WTO report estimates that global trade in these goods totalled $2.3 trillion in 2023. 

 

"With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort," DG Okonjo-Iweala said.

Narrowing digital infra gap will boost growth

According to the report, if low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50 per cent and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

 

The report also points to the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45 per cent in some low-income economies.

 

Investing in education and training and deploying appropriate labour market policies can help avoid a widening of inequality within economies, the report added.