Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million additional deaths, study warns

Cuts to USAID may reverse two decades of global health gains, causing 1.8 million deaths in 2025 alone and 14 million by 2030, The Lancet has warned

Deep cuts and a potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under President Donald Trump could lead to an estimated 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to a new study published in The Lancet on Monday.

 

The analysis, which assessed data from 133 low- and middle-income countries between 2001 and 2023, found that USAID programmes helped prevent more than 91 million deaths in the past two decades — including 30 million among children. If funding is slashed, an estimated 1.8 million excess deaths could occur in 2025 alone, rising to 14 million by 2030. This includes 4.5 million children under five, the study said.

 

'A conscious and avoidable policy choice'

 

The study described the potential fallout as a “conscious and avoidable policy choice” with devastating implications. It warned that USAID cuts, along with likely reductions from other international donors, could abruptly halt and reverse one of the most significant periods of global human development.

 

Sweeping USAID cuts under Trump

 

Since taking office in January, Trump’s administration has introduced extensive cuts to USAID, citing the need to curb government spending. Nearly all of the agency’s 10,000 staff have been removed.

 

In March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80 per cent of USAID programmes had been cancelled following a six-week internal review. He defended the move as necessary to “fix past failures” and eliminate what he described as progressive ideological influence within the agency.

 

USAID’s role in global health

 

USAID has played a central role in supporting public health in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa. According to The Lancet, countries receiving greater USAID support showed a 15 per cent reduction in overall mortality and a 32 per cent decline in child mortality.

 

Progress on disease-specific outcomes was also substantial:

 

-HIV/AIDS deaths dropped by 65 per cent

 

-Malaria deaths by 51 per cent

 

-Neglected tropical disease deaths by 50 per cent

 

US contributions to global aid

 

In 2023, the US accounted for 43 per cent of all government humanitarian funding worldwide, up from 39 per cent a decade earlier. USAID alone administered over $35 billion in foreign assistance in FY24, with a staff budget of around $2 billion. Total US foreign aid disbursements stood at $61 billion, more than half of which was routed through USAID.

 

Expert concerns

 

Human rights groups and development experts have warned that weakening USAID’s operations could erase years of public health progress, particularly harming vulnerable populations and children.

 

(With inputs from agencies)