President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to escalate the trade war is casting a darker pall over the world economy.
The back and forth between China and the US will likely continue this week as economists seek to work out what another 10% tariff on a further $300 billion in Chinese imports will mean for global growth. Click here for a rundown of all the Bloomberg News coverage.
Bloomberg Economics reckons that tariffs at the current level are enough to inflict a drag on Chinese gross domestic product of about 0.2% and 0.4% respectively with the cost peaking in 2021. Additional US levies and a response from China would lift those numbers to 0.4% and 0.6%, according to chief economist Tom Orlik.
“If all-out trade war hammers business and market confidence we’d anticipate a further 75 basis points in rate cuts by the Fed by year-end, with the People’s Bank of China moving in the same direction,” said Orlik.
US and Canada
Markets will still be reverberating not just to the trade war, but to last week’s payrolls report and to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates. Monday’s index on services will provide insight into whether that sector is being infected by the slowdown in manufacturing. Factory gate inflation data on Thursday will do the same and may show how much scope the central bank has to keep easing monetary policy. Canada releases jobs data on Friday too.
Central banks in Australia, New Zealand, India, Thailand and the Philippines will set interest rates and assess the global monetary outlook in the wake of the Fed’s rate reduction. All except Thailand have already cut rates at least once this year, with India, New Zealand and the Philippines seen as likely to act again this week.
Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe will expand on his thinking on Friday, when he’ll be queried by lawmakers and release his latest statement on monetary policy. On the data front, gross domestic product releases from Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan will be closely watched, as will trade and inflation numbers from China.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Euro-area economic data has continued to disappoint, underlining the urgency for policy makers to do something about it when they return from the beach. This week, industrial production data from Germany will help illustrate the state of the economy there at the end of the second quarter. Unlike most of the euro zone, Europe’s biggest economy has yet to reveal what happened to growth in the three months through June, when the Bundesbank reckoned it contracted.
German Weakness Spread Across Categories
In the U.K., Bloomberg Economics is predicting the economy likely shrank in the second quarter although it will probably rebound in the subsequent three months. Romania and Serbia set interest rates but aren’t expected to shift.
In Turkey, Monday’s inflation reading will help determine how quickly and how deeply the central bank will continue to reduce interest rates after a record 425 basis-point cut on July 25. Russia’s economy probably grew 0.8% in the second quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of data to be released as early as Friday. Bloomberg Economics expects the downturn this year to be brief, with a rebound in 2020 as consumers adjust to higher prices and a fiscal boost is backed by stimulus from monetary easing.
Following a decisive 50 basis-point cut to Brazil’s rate on July 31, investors on Tuesday will scour the minutes of the country’s central bank for guidance on the length and depth of its monetary easing cycle. In Mexico, economists expect July inflation to further slow in data to be released Thursday, supporting the case for lower rates in coming months.
Mexico Consumer Price Inflation
Chile’s central bank may also find another reasons to lower its key rate in September when activity data for June is released on Monday, likely showing a weakening economy.