Dollar squeeze coming? Don't take your eyes off Asia's politicians

The strong greenback hasn't led to a shortage. Yet

The dollar’s best quarterly run of Donald Trump’s presidency is no doubt causing discomfort in Asia. But while the greenback is getting expensive, it’s not yet scarce. To gauge the risk of a shortage, you have to read the political tea leaves from Kuala Lumpur to New Delhi and Beijing.

Suppose you’re an Indian bank. A customer wants $100 for three months. If you don’t have the dollars, you can always manufacture them by borrowing 6,900 rupees from the local money market for three months, paying interest of 110 rupees and buying $100 in the spot market at around 69 rupees