French elections: How Le Pen could win even if she polls lower than 50%

Emmanuel Macron and Le Pen are heading for a second round run-off on May 7

Never before in modern history has a French presidential election been punctuated by so many unforeseen events of all kinds, judicial and electoral. It ended up on the April 23 first-round vote with a four-way split, ranking centrist Emmanuel Macron first with 24.01%, followed by Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) on 21.30%. François Fillon of Les Républicains was on 20.01% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far left on 19.58%.

Macron and Le Pen are therefore heading for a second round run-off on May 7. First polls gave a ratio around 60/40 in