Inflation in Turkey surges 36% in December amid Lira crisis

Annual CPI rose to a 19-year high in December due to President Erdogan's push for cheaper borrowing

Turkish inflation surged to a 19-year high in December, propelled by a slump in the lira and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s push for cheaper borrowing.

The annual consumer inflation rate rose to 36.08% last month, the highest since September 2002 and up sharply from 21.31% in November. The figure far exceeded the 27.36% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 19 analysts.

Turkey’s central bank has slashed its benchmark interest rate by 500 basis points since September in a series of moves encouraged by Erdogan, who has attacked elevated borrowing costs as a challenge for businesses and a brake on economic growth. The cuts have sent the lira into a tailspin that’s fueled consumer price rises.

The lira recovered some of its losses in December after Erdogan introduced a mechanism that promises to compensate holders of the lira when the currency weakens to a certain level. However, the currency remains about 31% weaker than it was on Sept. 23, when the central bank started cutting interest rates.  

The acceleration in inflation takes Turkey’s benchmark interest rate adjusted for inflation to negative 22.08%, the lowest real yield among emerging markets.

The decision to slash five percentage points off the central bank’s benchmark rate led to an around 44% slide in the lira last year, making it the worst among all major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The currency also weakened after the December inflation report and was trading 2.3% lower as of 10:30 a.m. local time.

“We expect the headline inflation to accelerate until May-June,” said Ozlem Bayraktar Goksen, Istanbul-based chief economist at Tacirler Yatirim. “We don’t see a change in policy rate in the first quarter in line with the central bank’s guidance.”